Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 31, 2015

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It looks like taking Christmas Eve off did the NBA schedule some favors, as we have a six-game Thursday night on tap after a ten-game Wednesday. Talk about balance. Just like Wednesday, there are many players listed as questionable at the time of this writing whose status’ will be made clear throughout the day, or just before tip. That could make this list obsolete by the afternoon, but here goes.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 30, 2015

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First off, I must issue an apology to Tuesday’s slate, which I called U-G-L-Y. The Bucks, Thunder, Hawks and Rockets took offense to that and promptly lit up the scoreboards to destroy Vegas’ point totals for those games. Luckily I had a piece of guys like Kent Bazemore, Paul Millsap, Russell Westbrook, Dwight Howard and Khris Middleton to limit my own Andre Drummond-related disappointment. We’ve got 10 games on tap for Wednesday with lots of injury question marks, so let’s get to it.

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Ryan Fitzpatrick Has Been Great, But Brandon Marshall is the Jets' MVP

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Since the Jets lost four of five games to fall to 5-5 and the calls to replace Ryan Fitzpatrick started (oops!), the 33-year-old signal-caller has been nothing but outstanding in leading the Jets to five straight wins. Sure, he still can't challenge defenses down the field and makes a handful of truly ugly throws per game, but he's limited mistakes with just one interception in that span compared to 13 touchdowns. The Jets can live with his flaws if that continues.

Fitzpatrick has been great over the past month, and the Jets are obviously a confident football team with him at the helm. That much is undeniable. But now Fitzpatrick is garnering some MVP chatter when he isn't even the most valuable player on his own offense.

That honor belongs to wide receiver Brandon Marshall, another player the Jets traded a Day 3 pick for in the offseason. To say that general manager Mike Maccagnan hit a few home runs by trading a fifth-round pick for Marshall and what has now become a sixth-round pick for Fitzpatrick might be the understatement of the year. Their presence has completely transformed the Jets offense, but it's Marshall who has been the biggest difference-maker.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 29, 2015

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U-G-L-Y. Those four letters tell you all you need to know about Tuesday’s slate. It’s about the worst five-game slate I’ve seen in a while, with very few players I’d be interested in playing on a normal night. Then again, everything is relative and there are still some guys who are better plays than others. Let’s take a look at what Vegas thinks about Tuesday’s games.

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Week 15 Rookie Report: Artis-Payne, Hunter step up for playoff-bound teams

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No new rookies from the top 80 of the 2015 NFL draft made a notable impact in Week 15, while many mid-round guys continue to see increased playing time as the season winds down, many due to injuries. This week’s offensive rookies found themselves filling in for high-profile players on playoff teams, while the defensive players that made the report have been playing effective football for a few weeks now, also for contenders. Chris Tripodi takes a look in this week’s Rookie Report. 

Cameron Artis-Payne (RB-Car)

With injury-prone starting running back Jonathan Stewart finally succumbing to an ailment, Artis-Payne headed into Week 15 with an increased opportunity in the Carolina backfield. A late fifth-round pick out of Auburn who Draft Insider had rated as a third-round prospect, Artis-Payne led the Panthers backs with 14 carries for 59 yards and two catches for 34.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 26, 2015

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After an off day Thursday and a five-game Christmas Day slate, the NBA returns in full force with 13 games Saturday. The two early matchups won’t be included in DraftKings’ big tournaments, so they won’t be included in my picks here despite the fact that those games provide some top-notch DFS plays. Let’s take a look at the Vegas lines for Saturday. 

Vegas lines and totals

Houston @ New Orleans (-1.5) – total of 211.5
Memphis @ Charlotte (-3) – total of 194.5
Miami @ Orlando (-3.5) – total of 190.5
Boston @ Detroit (-1) – total of 204.5
New York @ Atlanta (-7.5) – total of 201.5
Indiana (-4.5) @ Minnesota – total of 206.5
Chicago @ Dallas (-3.5) – total of 201.5
Denver @ San Antonio (-14) – total of 194.5
Philadelphia @ Phoenix (-12) – total of 204
Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah (PK) – total of 195.5
Cleveland (-7) @ Portland – total of 197

Rockets and Pelicans should be a fun game filled with lots of offense and terrible, terrible defense. A game only a DFS player could love, if you may. Chicago-Dallas is another nice-looking fantasy matchup with a few others over 200. Overall, though, this slate is lacking firepower for the amount of games it provides. With that in mind, let’s see who the top picks of the day are.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 23, 2015

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My Tuesday picks were pretty helpful in terms of cash-game success, so here’s hoping that having more options Wednesday will make that even better. With 13 games on the NBA slate and only four teams off, almost every player in the league is an option. Let’s take a look at what the books think of Wednesday’s action.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 22, 2015

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I usually don’t use these pieces as a sounding board for my own bad beats, but Kevin Durant made it necessary Monday night. Sitting in 13th of 13,000-plus entrants in the late $3 Sharpshooter with 10 seconds left in the Thunder-Clippers game, I was sitting pretty at about 45x buy-in (you can do that math, I bet). One game-winning shot later, and that number dropped to about 30x and put me back in 18th. It also knocked me out of my all-night cash game with 290 points. 290!! Durant’s game-sealing block dropped me down to 20x, and here I am tilting looking at Tuesday’s slate.

But there’s no choice but to get back at it, although the NBA has “blessed” up with only four games and none that look terribly appealing from a DFS standpoint. It’s my job to find the appealing plays of the night, though, so read on if you want to put together your own “almost-there” GPP-winning team.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 19, 2015

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Not including the 5 p.m. blowout special between the Lakers and Thunder, which isn’t in any of DraftKings’ big-money tournaments, Saturday offers DFS players a four-game NBA slate to choose from. It’s a solid slate with four competitive games and none featuring lockdown defensive teams, which could lead to some relatively high fantasy scores even with just a handful of games. Let’s take a look at the Vegas lines for each game to start.

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Dissecting DraftKings for NFL Week 15

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Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin stayed hot in Seattle and kept my bankroll rising in Week 14. Even my teams with Jameis Winston and Austin Seferian-Jenkins cashed easily, as my receiver picks of Baldwin, Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall paid off handsomely, not to mention the fact that Winston and ASJ's low prices made their slow games easier to stomach. On to Week 15, with just three regular-season weeks to play of the NFL season.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 17, 2015

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The NBA schedule started off extremely balanced, but has fallen back to its old ways of late. After a 12-game Wednesday night, Thursday features just three games, but all least they all project to be close games after a blowout-filled Wednesday.

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Week 14 Rookie Report: 49ers, Agholor step up, Vikings' Harris fills in

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Two first-round picks made the Rookie Report for the first time this season in Week 14, which says a lot about how their respective seasons have gone to this point. One plays for San Francisco, which also had a mid-round pick play well in his first career start this week. In addition, an undrafted safety made a positive impression in prime time in a possible audition for a starting spot down the line. Chris Tripodi breaks down what he saw from a new batch of first-year players in this week’s Rookie Report.

Nelson Agholor (WR-Phi)

The Eagles entered the 2015 NFL draft in need of a playmaker on offense to complement possession receiver Jordan Matthews. By drafting Agholor with the 20th pick of the first round, Philadelphia thought it was getting just that, a 6-0, 198-pound receiver with sub-4.4 speed.

Instead, all the Eagles had gotten through 13 weeks was 16 receptions and 163 scoreless yards from Agholor, who has struggled to adjust to a starting role as a rookie, as Draft Insider’s Tony Pauline suggested would be the case in Agholor’s scouting report. The former USC star finally found the end zone in Week 14 and finished with three catches for 62 yards on six targets.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 13, 2015

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Sunday’s three-game slate is a slight letdown after the NBA scheduled nine games on Saturday, but such is life as the NFL season tails down. The Wolves and Suns play a 3:30 matinee but DraftKings’ big tournaments only include the games from 6 p.m. on, so those will be the only ones covered here. There are plenty of good plays in that early game, though, if you do play the all-day slate.

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Dissecting DraftKings for NFL Week 14

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Cam Newton, David Johnson, DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown led me to the DFS promised land last week, as all four turned in monster performances that made cashing easy in cash games and even a few GPPs regardless of the other players I used. Let's see what's in store for Week 14, as many-season long players turn to DFS with their regular teams out of the playoffs.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 10, 2015

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After a jam-packed Wednesday slate that included 10 games, we’re back down to four contests in Thursday’s NBA action. I finally ended my slump and erased any losses from the past few weeks with some process changes and a big Wednesday performance, and Thursday is a great day to keep the momentum rolling despite the short slate.

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Week 13 Rookie Report: David Johnson and DGB bust out, Frank Clark and Eddie Goldman flash on defense

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This week was the week of the high-upside second-round pick around the NFL. Three players drafted on Day 2, two of whom were potential first-rounders who slipped into the top 10 picks of the second round, made big impacts for their teams in Week 13. Add in a third-round rookie running back who has an opportunity to run with the starting job on the league’s best offense, and you have an exciting group of rookie performers this week. Chris Tripodi breaks them all down. 

David Johnson (RB-Ari)

A third-round pick out of Northern Iowa, David Johnson jumped from third-string to starter in the span of one week thanks to injuries to the backs ahead of him on the depth chart. With Chris Johnson placed on injured reserve with a broken leg and Andre Ellington struggling with turf toe, the younger Johnson rushed for 99 yards and 22 carries and caught two passes for 21 yards and a touchdown.

Johnson ran a 4.5 40-yard dash at 6-1, 224 pounds, and while his athleticism has been on display all season in a limited role, it had an extended chance to shine through in Sunday’s win over the Rams. On Johnson’s first carry, which went for six yards, he jumped over a fallen defender just past the line of scrimmage without losing momentum, falling forward for extra yardage at the end of the run.

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New York Jets need to dust off Dee Milliner

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The Jets' once-vaunted stable of cornerbacks is falling apart. Darrelle Revis is set to miss his second straight game with a concussion, and replacement Marcus Williams is doubtful with an MCL sprain. Williams filled in admirably for Revis against the Dolphins before going down, and now the Jets will have to scramble to fill the spot opposite Antonio Cromartie.

Cromartie's poor play has made him a cut candidate heading into next season and Darrin Walls, despite decent play in past opportunities, is just a guy. Todd Bowles would prefer to keep Buster Skrine in the slot, which leaves the responsibility for covering Odell Beckham Jr. to Cromartie or Walls.

Obviously Bowles will scheme a safety over the top against Beckham, especially with the Giants' overall lack of weapons outside of their second-year star, but both Cromartie and Walls are candidates to get roasted underneath by Beckham. With that in mind, it's time for the Jets to give third-year corner Dee Milliner a chance.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 5, 2015

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Saturday’s 10-game slate is the largest in almost a week, but two of those games will happen well
before the standard 8 p.m. start time, meaning they won’t be included here since DraftKings doesn’t include them in their big tournaments. That still leaves eight games, including one juicy one for daily fantasy purposes.

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Dissecting DraftKings for NFL Week 13

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The story of the NFL and fantasy football season, as it usually is, has become injuries, especially at the RB position. Many of the top cash-game plays at the position are players who started the season as backups, and Week 13 will be no different.

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Week 12 Rookie Report: Coleman, Parker step in and two Giants step up in loss

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Two highly touted skill players finally got their opportunities to shine in Week 12, as both Tevin Coleman and DeVante Parker were expected to make immediate impacts for their teams after being drafted. Instead, both have dealt with injuries as rookies this year and were thrust into action last weekend after their teammates found themselves sidelined by ailments of their own. Two Giants rookies made the list as well, one of whom was a relative unknown heading into the week. Chris Tripodi breaks down a new batch of rookies for Week 12.

Tevin Coleman (RB-Atl)

When the Falcons drafted Tevin Coleman early in the third round of the 2015 draft, it was presumed they wanted him to be their starting running back, with Devonta Freeman working as a change-of-pace. Both players had 29 touches through two weeks before Coleman missed Weeks 3 and 4 with a rib injury, opening up the backfield for Freeman.

Freeman ran away with the job over the next seven games, playing like one of the best backs in football. A concussion early in last week’s game against the Colts knocked him out early and kept him out of Week 12’s loss to the Vikings, giving Coleman the opportunity to step up. The rookie responded with his first career 100-yard game, rushing for 110 yards on 18 carries.

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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 1, 2015

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Tuesday’s slate has just six games and none with an over/under above 206 points. There also aren’t any games with a total under 197, giving DFS players a rare balanced slate to pick off matchups and value plays to make the best teams possible.

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