St. Louis won the World Series, but did they deserve it?

(Photo Credit: http://www.timesunion.com/mediaManager/?controllerName=image&action=get&id=1705557&width=628&height=471)

The Cardinals didn't win the World Series last night. The National League All-Stars won it in July.

In no way am I trying to take anything away from the Cardinals. They won this series by outplaying the Rangers in key moments when it mattered the most. It just so happens that it's easier to do that on the comfort of your own home field.

St. Louis stayed alive with two strikes and two outs in the bottom of the ninth of Game 6 thanks to World Series MVP David Freese, who also won that game for them in the 11th inning with a walk-off home run. After that momentum shift, the result of Game 7 was merely a formality.

For people who watched Game 6 and saw a clueless Nelson Cruz try to catch Freese's game-tying triple, it's hard not to think that he would have known where the wall was in his own home park and been more aggressive going after the ball. Before this year's World Series, Cruz had never set foot in Busch Stadium.

I'm not excusing Cruz's misplay, which essentially cost his team a World Series title. He's a highly-paid professional athlete, regardless of whether his strength is hitting home runs or making game-saving plays in the field. It's a play that could have been made, but is significantly more difficult in a foreign outfield.

If home-field advantage in the World Series was determined by team record like it should be, Texas would have played at home in Games 6 and 7. While the same exact scenarios are unlikely to unfold in a completely different park, you can't convince me that St. Louis wins this series without four games at Busch, "team of destiny" or not.

The home team won five of the seven games in this year's World Series, with the only exceptions coming in Game 2 in St. Louis and Game 3 in Texas. The final four games of the series, by far the most pivotal ones, were all won by the home team.

Ever since the 2002 All-Star Game ended in a tie, the result of the Midsummer Classic has affected which league gets home-field advantage in the World Series. It's absurd that the results from a game that doesn't matter has an effect on games that do and ultimately, the league's championship.

If the outcome of this year's World Series doesn't convince Bud Selig that his 2003 solution to "fix" the All-Star Game is flawed, nothing will. St. Louis beat both Philadelphia and Milwaukee to get to the World Series, and it's ironic that players from both teams helped them win once they got there.

Phillies pitchers Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee allowed just one run in the first three-and-two-thirds innings of the All-Star Game. If they had instead gotten shelled, the Rangers would likely be the team popping champagne like they won the championship game.

Brewers' first baseman Prince Fielder hit the three-run home run that put the National League up for good in the fourth inning. Think Fielder is happy that he aided a World Series victory for a hated division rival?

It's truly a shame that an All-Star Game from nine years ago affected the result of the 2011 World Series. It would be an even bigger shame if Selig didn't recognize his mistake and reverse it. If he doesn't, this won't be the last time the issues comes up. Mark my words.

Bold Predictions for the MLB's Second Half

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/767561-mlb-bold-predictions-for-every-division-in-the-second-half

Is it time for the 0-6 Red Sox to panic?

(photo courtesy of bostonherald.com)

I saw a statistic on ESPN yesterday that said after the Red Sox 0-6 start, their projected win total dropped from around 95 to 86. The same computer decreased their chances of making the playoffs from approximately 66 percent to 36 percent. I know that simulation takes into account the fact that their current struggles make future success less likely, but those numbers seem drastic.

Through six games, most thought a team like Boston would be 4-2, much like the Yankees. Through six games, they have four fewer wins than "projected." So I ask, how does that drop their win total for the season by nine games?

I understand that they can't hit. And outside of Jon Lester's sterling start yesterday, their pitching has also struggled. But anybody who knows baseball realizes that this team isn't going to stay down for long. Not after picking up two of the top five players at their respective positions in the offseason (1B Adrian Gonzalez and OF Carl Crawford).

Starting in a little over an hour, Boston will play host to the Yankees for a three-game series at Fenway Park. Let's say they win two out of three games to climb to 2-7. New York will be 5-4, three games ahead with 153 games to play. If New York goes 85-68 to get to 90 wins, Boston needs to go 88-65 to tie the Yankees.

What I'm really trying to say is that this 0-6 start isn't half the big deal people are making it out to be. As a Yankees fan, I love to see Boston struggle. But they still scare me. Teams have made up three games in the standings in the final week of a season before, who's to say Boston can't do it in five-and-a-half months.

For comparison's sake, if this was football the Red Sox would be down big at halftime of their FIRST GAME. Because the baseball season is so long, an 0-6 start really doesn't doom a team and represents less than 1/25 of the entire season. So why the panic?

The Boston lineup will be fine, there's no doubt in my mind about that. So will Jon Lester and to a lesser extent, Clay Buchholz. But John Lackey? Josh Beckett? Daisuke Matsuzaka? Those three are legitimate reasons to worry for Red Sox fans, but the Yankees have similar issues at the back end of their rotation.

If Boston gets swept at home by New York to fall to 0-9, then there may be some reason to panic. A seven-game lead after the season's first nine games is a much bigger hole than three or four, particularly when the team you're chasing is just as good if not better on paper.

For anybody who was wondering, I don't count the Orioles as a legitimate threat. Their young pitching has been superb so far and guys like Zach Britton, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta come with high upside. But let's not forget how good the Blue Jays were early last season, only to fall off as the season wore on.

There's a good reason the AL East is arguably the best division in baseball year in and year out and Baltimore will find out that it's hard to stay at the top when you have to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox all season.

Even with an 0-6 start, Boston is likely to end up near the top of this division with the Yankees in the end. The only question is whether they can overtake them or clinch a Wild Card berth in the American League. But it's way too early for Sox fans to panic, as much as I love to see turmoil in Boston.

Suspend Miguel Cabrera?

(photo courtesy of motownsports.com)

Last season, Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera was one of baseball's best stories. After blowing more than three times the legal limit after a domestic dispute with his wife in October, Cabrera underwent treatment, cleaned up his act and had a career season, finishing second in the AL MVP voting behind Josh Hamilton.

Just when you think Cabrera had learned his lesson and turned a corner, he gets arrested for DUI last night in Florida and has the audacity to grab a bottle of scotch and drink it in front of his arresting officers. There is dumb and there is REALLY dumb. Right now, Cabrera is REALLY dumb.

The only question left now is: Should Cabrera be suspended? If Roger Goodell ran baseball he would take away one-quarter of Cabrera's season, like he did when Ben Roethlisberger was accused of sexual assault in the offseason. Both were arrested and in a professional environment, especially one where millions of dollars are at stake, you shouldn't be allowed to get away with this.

I don't think it's too much to suspend Cabrera for the first month of the season. Considering the Nick Adenhart situation, where the promising Angels pitching prospect was killed by a drunk driver after a game almost two years ago, baseball knows the dangers of drunk driving first hand.

If Bud Selig doesn't punish Cabrera, it will send a terrible message. That message: Driving drunk is okay as long as you don't kill anybody. Cabrera is a multimillionaire just like Braylon Edwards; hire a driver and you don't have to worry about getting yourself into trouble.

If baseball doesn't suspend Cabrera, the Tigers should. But it's a tall order to ask any team to essentially forfeit their season by sitting their star player out for 25 games. As much as I like Cabrera as a player and believe he has limitless potential when clean, this incident proves that maybe he hasn't learned his lesson for the long run.

A suspension would be good for baseball's image and good for Cabrera too; hopefully it would prevent him from doing this again in the future, understanding that actions have consequences. Now it's time to wait and see if the MLB has the balls to suspend one of its brightest stars.

Cliff Lee to the Phillies? Does baseball need a cap?

Now before I go any further, let me reiterate a simple fact that people who know me know to be true. I am a Yankees fan, but I am probably the least front-running, most realistic Yankees fan you will find. I have been in favor of a salary cap in baseball for years now; I personally hate how the Yankees consistently buy all the best players. It's embarrassing for the game and for fans.

I have always been a believer in building through the farm system with good scouting and home-grown stars, while using free agency to add valuable role players at positions of need. Take the Yankees of the mid-1990s, who were full of home-grown players like Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Bernie Williams.

The players they signed in free agency weren't the A-Rod's of the world. They were solid professionals like Paul O'Neill, Scott Brosius and Tino Martinez. And all of these guys performed in the playoffs when the lights shined the brightest. Was it the lack of pressure having a huge contract and being a highly-publicized star in New York? Or is it that you don't need to be a superstar to perform consistently when your team needs you? Either way, this is how I would build my baseball team (and probably why I'm not a GM).

The moment New York started buying players is when they stopped winning titles every season or two. There's a little thing called chemistry in sports, just ask the Miami Heat. Baseball has needed a salary cap for years now and while it likely won't happen anytime soon, please don't say I'm a whiny Yankees fan who's just pissed the Red Sox got Carl Crawford, the Phillies got Cliff Lee and the Yankees got nobody...oh nevermind, they got RUSSELL MARTIN!

Baseball needs a cap because now there is about an 80 percent chance the Phillies and Red Sox will be playing in the World Series. I say only 80 percent because things don't always happen like they should on paper, but looking at both teams it's hard to see how they don't meet.

The Phillies now have four number-one starters. Lee will combine with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels to form possibly the best foursome of starting pitchers EVER ASSEMBLED. The Red Sox have added the big power bat they needed to replace the diminishing production of David Ortiz along with arguably the game's best outfielder to a position (left field) that they got nothing out of last season.

My bold player prediction for this season is that Adrian Gonzalez leads the league in home runs. Moving from a pitcher's park in San Diego to a bandbox in Boston has to add 10-15 bombs to his bat, at the least. And Boston's pitching, while nowhere near Philadelphia's, is pretty good with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and a likely rebound from Josh Beckett. I hate Dice-K, but he's an okay fourth starter.

Despite not making the playoffs last season, the Red Sox look fine. The Twins are too small market to improve much from year-to-year, the Rangers and Yankees both missed out on Lee, a player they each desperately needed, and Crawford's swap from Tampa Bay to Boston leaves the Rays in disarray.

As for the NL, the Giants may still be able to compete with the Phillies but that's about it. And only because they have a great young pitching staff with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez that can at least attempt to rival Philadelphia's. Forget that their lineup is probably too weak for another World Series run.

So in the end, the Red Sox and Phillies end up the big winners from baseball's winter meetings and free agency. Usually it's the Yankees, and usually they end up losing at some point. Maybe the year New York misses out on all the big free agents will be the year they win it all again? Maybe, but I'm not hanging my hat on it.

MLB Division Series start with a bang

-The Yankees did last night to Francisco Liriano what they do to every starting pitcher they face: work the count, make him reach 100 pitches before the end of the sixth inning and take advantage of him once he starts to miss spots and leave balls up. They may take forever to play their games, but the way they play it sure is effective.

The only pitcher to consistently dominate the Yankees so far this season has been Felix Hernandez, as even studs like Jon Lester and Cliff Lee have had mediocre starts against New York. Don't tell me that former Yankee Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing or Nick Blackburn is going to avoid a similar fate to Liriano. But after Lee's win against the Rays last night, the Yanks may still have to face him if both teams reach the ALCS.

-Segue! Lee turned in the sixth 7 IP, 1 ER or less, 10+ K performance in MLB playoff history. And oh by the way, he had two of the previous five. He is slated to pitch Game 5 if necessary and if Texas can win just one of Games 2-4 (I think C.J. Wilson against James Shields tonight is a great matchup for the Rangers) then I think the Rangers are going to win the series.

The real question is if Tampa takes Games 2 and 3, do the Rangers throw Lee in an elimination Game 4 on three days' rest?. Tommy Hunter would then likely start Game 5 against David Price, a definite mismatch but one that may not happen if Lee doesn't pitch Game 4.

The Rangers can't really afford to lose to Shields and Matt Garza to go down 2-1, but I think there's a legitimate chance they go up 2-0 tonight, as Shields has struggled all season and Wilson's transition from the bullpen has been extremely smooth.

-Saving the best for last, Lee wasn't the only pitcher who has worn a Phillies uniform in the past two seasons to make history last night. Roy Halladay threw the second no-hitter in postseason history in his first career postseason start last night, dominating the Reds lineup and cementing his NL Cy Young award, although the playoffs aren't supposed to affect things like that.

I went into this series thinking Phillies sweep or win in four and nothing from Game 1 has changed that thought (who thought Edinson Volquez would beat Halladay?). The real question is who will they play in the NLDS, the Giants or the Braves?

-Segue #2! The Braves survived a near-collapse late in the season to make the Wild Card, while the Giants stormed up on the Padres to take the NL West. If there is one game in this series where 10 or more total runs are scored I will be floored.

The stars of this series will be the pitchers. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner for the Giants, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson for the Braves. I know I'm leaving out hitters like Aubrey Huff and Jason Heyward, but those two guys are going to have to carry these respective lineups as neither team is that strong at the dish.

This series is going to be won with pitching and while the Braves are solid there, the Giants are better. I think the teams will split in each park setting up a Lowe-Lincecum Game 5 matchup. The way Tiny Tim has been pitching of late, I think he'll take the Giants to the next round.

Clemens headed to jail instead of the Hall?

I would write about what I expect to happen in the season's final month and a half in terms of playoff scenarios, but I think the possibilities are few and far between. Texas and Minnesota are beginning to run away with the AL West and AL Central, respectively, while the Yankees and Rays should both make the playoffs while battling for the AL East crown. Booooooriiiiiing!

In the NL, the Padres are cruising atop the NL West while the Braves and Phillies battle in the East and the Reds and Cardinals in the Central. The Giants are in contention for the Wild Card as well, but I think Chase Utley's return and superior talent will get the Phillies into the playoffs, whether by winning the division or as the Wild Card. Reds-Cardinals should be interesting down the stretch but with only three games left against each other, it may be hard for St. Louis to gain 3.5 games on a good-looking Reds team with an easy schedule.

So now that I exhausted all I could write about how the playoffs might shape up, it's time to get to baseball's most recent criminal. I know people love to talk about the records Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez have and will put up in the midst of the steroid era and, while Bonds has never admitted using performance-enhancing drugs like A-Rod, neither of them hold a candle to Clemens right now.

Essentially, Clemens requested a congressional hearing in 2008 so that he could lie under oath about never using steroids or HGH. The irony in this is that Clemens could spend almost two years in prison if found guilty of perjury WHEN HE DIDN'T HAVE TO APPEAR IN FRONT OF CONGRESS IN THE FIRST PLACE! How stupid and arrogant can you be?

Everyone knows (or rightfully assumes) that Clemens used performance-enhancers. That doesn't mean he didn't have a great work ethic and train extremely hard in the weight room, but that can only go so far. Combined with steroids and/or HGH, a heavy workout routine produces even more drastic results, results that allowed Clemens to make millions upon millions of dollars when most pitchers' careers would've been over.

Now I ask, was it worth it? Most people would say yes because, let's face it, very few of us get the opportunity to make the kind of money Clemens made by prolonging his career with performance-enhancing drugs. And even if he has to spend 15-21 months in prison, that money will still be there when he gets out.

But was it worth it in terms of Clemens' legacy in baseball? If he is found guilty of perjury, he can kiss the Hall of Fame goodbye. Some players from the steroid era will inevitably make the Hall, but one who perjured himself under oath at a congressional meeting that he himself requested will not be one of them. His talent is unquestionable and without this dark cloud he would be a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer. But that's a lot to remove from the equation.

The sad thing is, there's nothing Clemens can really do at this point to salvage his image or his Hall of Fame credentials. The hole has been dug too deep and his vehement denials in the face of damning evidence presented by former trainer Brian McNamee's side prove that Clemens' arrogance has once again gotten the best of him.

Many people have always disliked Clemens for being a headhunter. Mike Piazza wouldn't disagree, especially after Clemens flung a broken bat in his direction in 2000, just three months after Clemens hit him in the head with a pitch. This turn of events will only do more damage to the public perception of Clemens, and rightfully so.

This situation shows more about the character of Clemens than anything he ever did on the field, good or bad. While players like Rodriguez and Andy Pettitte (a friend of Clemens) have admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs and at least have a modicum of respect from the public for their candid admissions, Clemens does not. And if he's found guilty of perjury, which I think he will be, he will lose whatever backers he still may have at this point. I'm just not sure it matters either way.

Should the All-Star Game count?

Many baseball fans are complaining about the inclusion of utility infielders like Omar Infante and Ty Wigginton on this year's All-Star rosters over players like Joey Votto or Kevin Youkilis. But the sad but true fact is, because the All-Star game counts for home-field advantage in the World Series, it might be more valuable to Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel to have these players on their roster for late-game flexibility than the big boppers that already populate the rosters.

Which begs the question: Should the All-Star Game count? I know the 2002 tie was a huge travesty but making the game count has taken the MLB All-Star game from a spectacle for the fans (like any other league's All-Star game) to a way for the previous season's pennant-winning managers to use the rest of the players in their league for a shot at World Series home-field. Wouldn't it make more sense to give home field to the team that had a better regular-season record than to the team whose league won a single game?

I can guarantee that if the All-Star Game didn't count for anything, names like Infante and Wigginton would be nowhere near the rosters. I'm okay with middle relievers like Arthur Rhodes, Evan Meek and Matt Thornton being on the roster because they have all had excellent seasons and deserve recognition. But if you aren't even good enough to play every day for one of 30 MLB teams (I'm looking at you, Omar Infante, and Wigginton whenever Brian Roberts returns), then you aren't good enough to be an All-Star. I don't care how many positions you can play.

Now from one rant to another. How is Jason Heyward an All-Star? I know he started the season well but he has tanked since with his average down to .251. What about players like Chris Young and Corey Hart (who made it anyway) or Matt Kemp and Colby Rasmus (who didn't)? That's the only real beef I have with the fan voting, outside of the fact Ichiro should not be starting (Brett Gardner has better stats in every category except batting average (.326 to .314) and Alex Rios is enjoying a huge season, potentially 30-40). But the Japanese voters will push Ichiro into the starting lineup until the day he retires.

I understand why Marlon Byrd and Michael Bourn made the NL squad as the lone representative of the Cubs and Astros, but Matt Holliday over Carlos Gonzalez? Gonzalez is better in every category besides average (.298 to .295) and deserves a spot on the roster. But Holliday was voted in by the players and got credit for his years of solid MLB service. New flash: This is the 2010 All-Star Game, not the 2006-2009 Career Achievements Game.

Fausto Carmona and Matt Capps are two other curious additions. Both are also the lone representatives from their respective teams. If the game counts, shouldn't managers not be forced to take non-All-Star caliber players from terrible teams? Mat Latos and Jered Weaver would help these managers much more pitching an inning or two than either Carmona or Capps, who could eventually blow the game for their particular side.

The All-Star Game is really just one big contradiction. If you're going to have the game count for something, then some changes should be made. The major one is that there should be no requirement to choose one player from each team. If each manager is playing to win the game I'm fine with middle relievers and utility infielders, but the spots taken by players like Bourn, Byrd (who may be slightly deserving), Carmona and Capps should belong to players like Votto, Gonzalez, Latos and Weaver. Wouldn't the teams have a better shot at winning with better players available?

Fan voting should also be eschewed, but that kills the whole allure of the game to the fans, who fuel any sport. When the best idea is to leave the fans out of the voting, that's when you know THE GAME SHOULDN'T COUNT. It's an All-Star game and should remain as such. And to prevent ties, add one more pitching spot to invite an extra player on the premise that he will be saved in case the game goes deep into extra innings. And make it a starting pitcher.

My ultimate All-Star game would be one that didn't count for anything. Then the fans can vote for whoever they want to start the game and the managers can fill their bench with the most deserving players without having to consider position flexibility. And even if there has to be one representative from each team it doesn't matter, because the game wouldn't count. It would be nothing more than a spectacle, which is what an All-Star Game should be. Not a determinant for home-field advantage in the World Series.

Bud Selig, I know you were thoroughly embarrassed by what happened in 2002. But it's time to get over it and move on (like everybody else has) and let the All-Star Game be what it always has been and always should be: A show for the fans. Get on it for 2011.

Strasburg light years ahead of Chapman

I had the unique opportunity (along with anybody else who lives in Rochester) to see two of baseball's most hyped pitching prospects throw against the AAA Red Wings in the past week. 2009 #1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg came to town last night with the Syracuse Sky Chiefs (Nationals AAA team) and Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman pitched Friday for the Louisville Bats (Reds AAA team). I will start with Strasburg, since his performance was much more noteworthy.

Strasburg's final line against the Red Wings was outstanding. 6.1 innings, 3 hits, 0 earned runs, 2 walks and 9 strikeouts. But what isn't seen in that line are the struggles he endured through the game's first four innings. He ran up multiple three-ball counts early against Red Wings hitters, struggling to find the strike zone and harness his nasty stuff (he hit 99 MPH on the radar gun), as both of his walks came in the first few innings.

Strasburg settled down with his control in the fourth inning and didn't allow any runners past second base the rest of the way, something that happened in both the second and third innings, but he was hit hard in the inning. After a leadoff single by Jose Morales, Dustin Martin hit a scorching line drive right at the center fielder and highly-rated Twins prospect Danny Valencia ripped a line drive to third, which Chase Lambin snagged with a quick lunge to the backhand side.

After his defense stood strong behind him in the fourth, Strasburg struck out six of the final seven batters he faced including a knee-buckling curveball to Wings first baseman Brock Peterson that made SportsCenter. All in all, Strasburg had 5 strikeouts with his curveball (2 looking) and 4 with his fastball (3 looking). The drop on his curveball made it virtually unhittable and his fastball location was pinpoint as the game wore on.

After starting the game with a fairly even ball-to-strike ratio, Strasburg threw approximately 30 of his final 40 pitches for strikes and dominated Wings hitters by pounding the strike zone, as Morales pointed out in the post-game press conference. He finished with 60 strikes out of 92 pitches and was still hitting 97 MPH on the radar gun in the seventh inning.

When he was pulled after his final strikeout, he walked off of Frontier Field to a standing ovation from the 12,000 or so fans that came to see him in one of his final starts at the Triple-A level. Two batters later, Brock Peterson hit a moonshot home run to left center field against the Chiefs bullpen, something that seemed unfathomable with Strasburg on the mound.

Despite his impressive line, Strasburg battled for most of the game last night. Maybe it was because he hadn't started in a week but regardless of the reason, he maneuvered his way out of tough situations. Strasburg impressed me as a pitcher and not just a thrower and he definitely looks ready for the big leagues right now. His first start is schedule for June 4 against Cincinnati and it should be another event. His presence alone drew the eighth-largest regular-season crowd in Frontier Field history.

Now on to Chapman, who will get a much shorter write-up. The reason? He didn't quite last as long (or pitch as well) as Strasburg did.

Chapman's line last Friday night: 3.1 innings, 9 hits, 8 earned runs, 3 walks. Those three walks came within the Wings first eight batters but it was the fourth inning that proved to be Chapman's undoing.

Unlike Strasburg, who pitched through a shaky start to shut down Rochester's offense, Chapman could not. He allowed hits to the first three batters in the fourth before striking out Peterson and allowing three more hits, including a home run by Trevor Plouffe that ended his ugly outing. Chapman allowed six runs in the inning while recording just one out.

Chapman's struggles with control were much worse than Strasburg's, especially because he could not bounce back. This is a sign to me that he is nowhere near as ready for the big leagues as Strasburg is, despite being on a similar timetable for a call-up.

The Reds plan on recalling Chapman in early June, around the same time Strasburg will be making his debut for the Nats. While I fully expect Strasburg to post good strikeout numbers and a respectable ERA from the start, I can't say the same about Chapman after watching him on Friday night.

The Wings lineup is not particularly potent yet he posted by far his worst start in the minors this season. He came into the game with a 2.84 ERA and left with a 4.28 mark. Maybe I'm just overreacting to one bad start, but I'm going on what I saw with Chapman in comparison to Strasburg, who was dominant even without his top-notch stuff.

Chapman has the skills to succeed at the big league level, but my feeling is that he will struggle initially upon being called up unless he harnesses his control issues. Major league hitters will work the count and pound his mistakes like the Red Wings did on Friday night, just more often and with more authority.

But that Strasburg kid? Well, he's the real deal and it won't take people long to see that once he hits the big leagues. I'm not sure when he'll win his first Cy Young award, especially with great young pitchers like Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez and Adam Wainwright in the National League, but he will surely be in the discussion starting in 2011.

If you look at what 2007 #1 overall pick David Price is doing this year with the Rays, I expect that and more from Strasburg next season. This season will prove as a valuable learning experience for this future stud, who could bring the Nationals back to the relevance they saw as the Expos in the early 90s. They're already over .500 this season without arguably their most talented starting pitcher. Is it too early to put the Phillies on watch? (Yes.)

Red Sox doomed by slow start

After being swept by the cellar-dwelling Orioles, the Red Sox now sit at 11-14, in fourth place in the AL East and seven games behind the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays (5.5 behind the Yankees).

Last year, Tampa started in a similar hole at 11-15 after winning the AL pennant. The Rays didn't make the playoffs and there are plenty of similarities with them and the Sox this season.

Both teams were in fourth on May 3rd. Both had 11 wins. And both have two teams in front of them that could legitimately be considered the best team in baseball. It's an uphill battle the Rays couldn't win last season and the Red Sox will lose this season as well.

General manager Theo Epstein made moves in the offseason to shore up the Red Sox defense, adding Gold Glovers Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron. But Boston is near the bottom of the American League in errors and, while Cameron has been battling injuries along with Jacoby Ellsbury, their defense isn't as good as it was on paper heading into the season.

Whenever you put an emphasis on defense, your lineup is bound to suffer. I predicted Boston would finish below the Yankees and Rays for this major reason and so far I've been right.

This team desperately needs production out of David Ortiz, the only 30-home run threat in their lineup. But with a .159 average, 3 home runs and just 6 RBI, Ortiz isn't much of a threat at all. The only regular hitting over .300 is Beltre, who doesn't have a home run this season. Dustin Pedroia leads the team with six so far but considering his career high is 17, he might not even reach 20.

If bad defense and a lack of offense wasn't bad enough, Boston's starting pitchers have also struggled. Clay Buchholz is the only Red Sox starter with an ERA under 4.50 (2.19) and if anybody expects Daisuke Matsuzaka to save this team they are foolish. In his first start this weekend against the Orioles, he allowed 10 baserunners and 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings.

Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and John Lackey should get on track as the season goes along and if Buchholz continues his strong pitching, the Sox rotation should be fine. But their impotent lineup will ultimately be their undoing, as both the Rays and Yankees are in the league's top three in runs scored.

Boston has five months to get their act together and come back from a nearly double-digit deficit in the division through just 25 games. I know the baseball season is a long one, but it's going to be even longer for Boston fans this season when they watch their team languish behind Tampa Bay and New York all season. Just don't expect me to say I told you so (although I just did?).

NL Preview

Baseball is officially back and I couldn't be happier. This will be my last preview and I will run down the NL division champions and my choice for the Wild Card, as well as playoff predictions for both leagues.

NL East Champion: Philadelphia Phillies

The best get better...sort of. The Phillies lost Cliff Lee who dominated the postseason but added Roy Halladay to replace him, which seems like a good trade on paper. Placido Polanco replaces Pedro Feliz at third and J.A. Happ will join the rotation full-time, but other than that there isn't much different about this Phillies squad. They're good enough that it doesn't matter and a bounceback year from Jimmy Rollins will be huge for the Phils.

NL Central Champion: St. Louis Cardinals

Behind stud starting pitchers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals will again be strong at the top of their pitching staff. And with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday raking in the middle of the lineup not to mention Ryan Ludwick and Colby Rasmus (who just homered), their lineup is pretty good too. If Carpenter stays healthy, this is a near lock.

NL West Champion: Colorado Rockies

Love this team this season. Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa seem primed for breakout seasons at the top of the rotation and Jeff Francis returns from injury to give Colorado some pitching depth. Troy Tulowitzki and Brad Hawpe provide the power in the middle of the lineup and Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Stewart will look to build on their 2009 seasons. If they do, the Rockies have what it takes to win the division and compete for the NL pennant.

NL Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers

The success of the Dodgers will hinge on the top of their starting rotation, namely Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. Kershaw has Cy Young potential and realizing it this season will go a long way to shoring up what many feel is the Dodgers' biggest weakness: their starting rotation. One of the league's best bullpen should help the starters when they don't last deep into games and a lineup featuring Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez can produce runs. The Rockies and Dodgers could be interchangeable at these spots.

Playoffs:

Divisional Round:
Phillies over Dodgers, Rockies over Cardinals
Rays over Twins, Yankees over Mariners

Championship Series:
Phillies over Rockies, Yankees over Rays

World Series:
Yankees over Phillies

Yes, I chose a repeat of last year's World Series with the same champion. Call me boring, but I think the Yankees and Phillies are hands down the best teams in baseball this season. But with all the luck involved in the long baseball season, this outcome could easily change. Here's a darkhorse scenario:

Rockies over Rays

AL Central and West preview

Since the season is coming up on us ever so quickly, my plan to break down every division is highly unlikely to come to fruition. So this will be part 2 of a three-part series, with the third post being a National League preview. For now though, the AL Central and AL West.

AL Central Winner: Minnesota Twins

I always pimp Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox and I always fall flat on my face. Time to change speeds and take the Twins, who really do have a solid team heading into the 2010 season. The middle of their order includes Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, all of whom have 25-homer potential (although I think Mauer slides back a little bit this year). The additions of Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy should bolster Minnesota's middle infield and with Mauer and center fielder Denard Span, the Twins will be very strong up the middle.

Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey will be the team's top two starters and while neither is overpowering, they get outs and can eat up 200-plus innings. Francisco Liriano is the x-factor in the Minnesota rotation. A breakout season from him will give the Twins three legitimate starting pitchers.

The bullpen took a big hit with the season-ending injury to Joe Nathan and while a closer-by-committee seems to be in the works for now, expect either Jon Rauch or Matt Guerrier to sew up that job by the end of April. Jesse Crain and Jose Mijares add depth for the middle innings and the return of Pat Neshek from Tommy John surgery just adds to what is usually is strength for the Twins. Expecting 90 wins would be a stretch, but 85 should take this division.

The Rest

The White Sox are strong in the starting pitching department with Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and recently acquired Jake Peavy. Gordon Beckham is a star in the making but Chicago will need big season from Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios and Alexei Ramirez to contend for the division crown. It's hard to count on all three of those guys...

The Tigers have question marks surrounding their starting pitching behind Justin Verlander. Can Max Scherzer work deep into games? Will Rick Porcello take a step forward or a step backward? Does Dontrelle Willis deserve a major league contract anymore?

I expect a big season from Miguel Cabrera and by big, I mean .330 with 40 home runs and 110 RBI. Beyond him and Johnny Damon, the Tigers will be relying on a few rookies to make instant impacts in the big leagues, particularly Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. Detroit and Chicago will be fighting it out for second in the Central, though.

The Indians are much too young to put together much more than a 70-75 win season and their pitching leaves much to be desired when Jake Westbrook is your Opening Day starter. Look out for the return to relevance of Fausto Carmona and if youngsters Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley grow up quickly, they could put together a formidable lineup alongside Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo.

The Royals are, well, the Royals. Zack Greinke and Billy Butler are fun players and Mike Aviles is hitting over .500 this spring, but this team will still end up in the cellar.

AL West Winner: Seattle Mariners

Love this team this season and Seattle is a definite World Series sleeper. Okay now that's a stretch, but this team has great defense, great pitching and a park that suits the way this team is built. Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are one of the league's better one-two punches at the top of any rotation and while their lineup lacks star power, solid under-the-radar players like Franklin Gutierrez and Jose Lopez will join with known quantities like Ichiro and Chone Figgins. The Mariners will run often to cover the lack of power in that lineup, which could also be due to the dimensions of Safeco Field. My only real question is what happens to a team that has Milton Bradley as their cleanup hitter...

The Rest

The Angels are usually the class of the West, but the departures of Figgins and John Lackey leave this team with a few holes to fill. I've learned to never underestimate a Mike Scoscia-managed team, but they need to find an ace out of Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana or Scott Kazmir. Joe Saunders and Joel Piniero round out what should be a deep rotation, but without Lackey they will need to find a horse to rely on.

Their lineup is comparable to Texas' in this division thanks to an outfield that includes Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu, not to mention 2009 breakout star Kendry Morales at first base and World Series hero Hideki Matsui at DH. Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar are solid up the middle and Mike Napoli will provide stability behind the plate. Don't sleep on the Angels this year, because everybody else is.

The Rangers' lineup is awesome, with potential 30-home run guys like Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis and speed like Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon. Ian Kinsler will provide both once he comes off the DL and Michael Young has always been a solid player. Now if they could just fix a pitching staff that starts with Scott Feldman and Rich Harden...

As far as the A's go, I love Brett Anderson this season. I'm in way too many fantasy leagues and he's on way too many of my teams. But beyond him I'm not sure how much I trust Ben Sheets, Trevor Cahill and Justin Duchscherer. And a lineup headlined by names like Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, Jack Cust and Kevin Kouzmanoff isn't much to write about either.

AL East Preview: Yanks, Rays reign supreme

If I actually find the time to write each of the next 6 days, I will be able to get in previews for every division before the season starts on Monday. I know the Yankees and Red Sox play Sunday night, but I'm doing the AL East today so it doesn't matter! Here goes nothing.

Division Champion: New York Yankees

Did you think I was going to put Boston here? Or even Tampa Bay? The Yankees won their 27th title last season and are arguably a better team on paper heading into 2010. Losing veteran World Series heroes Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon will be the major blow to this squad, but the addition of Curtis Granderson should help soften the blow in the outfield.

Granderson is much better defensively than Damon and should use the short porch in right field even more effectively. Nick Johnson will DH in Matsui's stead and, while lacking the power of Godzilla, is an on-base machine slated to hit second and score lots of runs on extra-base hits by Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. The Yankees infield remains untouched and one of the better defensive infields in baseball.

The Yankees also bolstered their pitching staff, adding Javier Vazquez in a trade with Atlanta. Vazquez crumbled in the second half in his last stint with New York, but he's six years older and a much better pitcher now than he was in 2004. He will be a welcome addition as New York's third or fourth starter and Phil Hughes brings plenty of potential to the fifth starter's role. Joba Chamberlain will move back to the bullpen to set up Mariano Rivera and groom himself for the closer role in the future, while Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Damaso Marte and Sergio Mitre will handle work in the middle innings.

Their bullpen is far from awesome, but the Yankees have starters that can go deep into games and create a bridge straight to Chamberlain and Rivera on most nights. And we've all seen how nasty Joba can be out of the pen.

Division Runner-up (Wild Card winner): Tampa Bay Rays

From the team that won last year's World Series against the Phillies to the team that lost the previous year's World Series against the Phillies. Sorry Boston fans, but this Rays team is on the rise. After a 23-27 record in the first 50 games of the season, Tampa finished 61-51 the rest of the way. That projects to 90 wins or so and they won 97 the year before, so this team has definite 100-win potential and could even win the division.

This team is filled with young talent like Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton. To make the playoffs this season, they will need continued MVP-caliber play at the plate and in the field from Longoria and solid seasons from both Zobrist and Upton, who cannot possibly hit .241 again (or can he?). Their infield defense with Longoria, Zobrist, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena is also excellent and should help their pitching staff.

Speaking of pitching, this is the one area where Tampa most likely cannot compete with New York and Boston. James Shields should bounce back from a subpar season by his standards and I look for Matt Garza and Jeff Niemann to take steps forward this season as well. Youngsters David Price and Wade Davis fill out the rotation's final two spots, and the difference between 85 and 95 wins for this team may rest solely on their shoulders.

Boston Red Sox

When your division includes three of the American League's top four teams (and arguably three of the MLB's top five), they all can't make the playoffs. No one is saying the Red Sox are bad team; hard to say that about a squad that has won 190 games in the past two seasons. They will surely win 90 this year, but that may not be good enough in the AL East.

One thing I love about Boston this season is their pitching staff. Jon Lester should emerge as their ace this season, leaving Josh Beckett as one of the league's better second starters. John Lackey gives them a top three that can compete with any team in the big leagues but just like the Rays, they have question marks after their top three. Will this be the year that Clay Buchholz breaks out? Can Daisuke Matsuzaka stay healthy and regain his top form? Will Tim Wakefield's knuckeball ever stop knuckling?

Their lineup is still good, but losing Jason Bay and his tendency to pull high fly balls over the short Green Monster in left will hurt. My apologies to David Ortiz, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis but the Red Sox lack that big home run threat in the middle of their lineup that both the Yankees (A-Rod, Teixeira) and Rays (Longoria) have. Ortiz could hit 30, but he's the only one in this lineup who can. The top of their lineup is excellent with those three, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, but it's hard to rely on players like Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew and Marco Scutaro for consistent contributions. And this year, that's exactly what the Red Sox are doing.

The Red Sox are still an excellent baseball team, but their lineup is not quite as menacing as it usually is. The Yankees and Rays both have pitching staffs that can neutralize the Red Sox hitters (outside of A.J. Burnett at Fenway), which is why I have those teams ahead of Boston this year. I expect to take some heat for this pick (noting my obvious anti-Boston bias), but I'm ready.

Baltimore Orioles

The O's are no threat to the division's top three teams, but they could be in 2-3 years, much like the Rays came up from the cellar. This team has loads of young talent with catcher Matt Wieters and outfielders Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold. Mix that in with veterans such as Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada and this Baltimore lineup isn't as bad as most people think.

Their pitching staff, on the other hand, is still a way away from contention. Kevin Millwood is no Opening Day starter, but it looks like that's who Baltimore will send to the mound for their first game this year. The real intriguing pitcher to watch on this squad is Brian Matusz. A 38:14 K:BB ratio in 44 innings last season is cause for excitement and along with Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez and Chris Tillman, the Orioles have some potential in their staff for the future. They could win 70 games this season, which would be a step in the right direction after winning just 64 in 2009.

Toronto Blue Jays

Yes, they won 75 games last season. No, they won't do it again, not without Roy Halladay winning games by himself. This team will drop into the mid-60s in victories; it's just hard to overcome the dropoff from Halladay to Ricky Romero as your staff ace. Romero tailed off in the second half last season and the rest of their staff is also full of question marks. Can Shawn Marcum return to his 2008 performance level? Can Brandon Morrow become a successful starting pitcher? How do you spell Mark Rzepczynski?

Their lineup stinks too, outside of 2009 breakout stars Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Vernon Wells is washed up as evidence by his measly three RBI in July and the Jays will need Lind/Hill-type breakout years from Edwin Encarnacion, Travis Snider or both to pose any sort of offensive threat against the deep, talented pitching staffs that reside in the AL East.

Lackey signing makes Red Sox rotation scary

With two studs already in place at the top of their rotation in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the Boston Red Sox added a less spectacular but very consistent pitcher in former Angel John Lackey. Lackey spent 8 seasons in Anaheim and accumulated 102 wins, including a career-high 19 in 2007.

In the last five years, Lackey's lowest win total was 11 and his highest ERA was 3.83 (both last season). He has missed 15 starts over the past two seasons, but that didn't deter Boston from offering him a 5-year, $85 million contract (slightly more than the Yankees gave A.J. Burnett last offseason) to be their third starter.

With Clay Bucholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield still around to fill the final two rotation spots, the Red Sox will have great depth in case a starter or two goes down with an injury. And their three-man playoff rotation looks daunting: Beckett, Lester, Lackey and either Buchholz or Matsuzaka as their fourth starter.

They could also use that depth to make a trade for a bat, with names like Adrian Gonzalez being floated around in trade rumors. I find Gonzalez more intimidating in the middle of that lineup than Jason Bay, who is all but gone after being offered just a four-year contract by the Red Sox.

While the Red Sox playoff rotation shakes up nicely, making the playoffs out of the AL East won't be an easy task with the last two American League champions residing in the same division. And the inevitable loss of Bay, who was second the AL with 119 RBI and third with 36 home runs, will certainly weaken their lineup if they don't make a move.

But that lineup will not need to produce as many runs as it did last season with the upgrade in the rotation. And if Dice-K can return to his dominant (albeit wild) 2008 form, the Red Sox would likely lay claim to baseball's best pitching staff. With those starters and Jonathan Papelbon waiting in the ninth inning, the Red Sox will be a tough out in the postseason. If they can get there.

Welcome to the worst World Series ever

As if the 2009 season couldn't get any worse for Mets fans, we now are faced with the worst possible scenario: A Phillies vs. Yankees World Series. Considering how big of a trainwreck the Mets' season was this year, combined with the Phillies and Yankees cruising to division championships, this seemed inevitable since July. 

As this disaster of a World Series took shape, Mets fans were faced with a terrible dilemma: Who do you root for? This is like deciding between getting hit by a bus or a train; you wouldn't ever want either of them to happen. It's the Steinbrenners vs. the team with the trashiest fans in baseball. Shoot me now.

As difficult of a decision as this is, Mets fans have to go for Philly. It's not like we'll be able to celebrate either team winning this disaster of a series, but it will be more fun if the Yankees lose. Here's some reasons why:

- The Phillies won the World Series last year. Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and the rest of the Phils that Mets fans love to hate already have their rings, so seeing them get another one can't be that bad.

On the other hand, many Yankee stars including Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Mark Teixiera and C.C. Sabathia have never won a World Series ring. It's best to keep it that way. Can you think of anything worse than A-Rod winning a World Series? I didn't think so.

- Philadelphia fans are the scum of the earth. They hate everyone and anything and they let you know it. That being said, they are extremely loyal, and suffered through many rough years. Last year was only their second championship in team history.

Yankee fans, on the other hand, are the biggest bandwagoners in the world. You find Yankee fans all over the country, for no particular reason except "they're always good." People from North Carolina to North Dakota buy Yankee hats in October and celebrate when they win, even though they can't even name five players on the team. 

- The Steinbrenners always outspend everyone else in the league, but they treat their fans who try to go to their games like crap. Prices at the new Yankee Stadium have been astronomical, and it seems that the only ways to get a ticket to a World Series game in the Bronx are to have a ridiculous amount of money or to work for a corporation with a lot of money.

Yankee fans were told that there were World Series tickets available and started camping out outside of the Stadium around 6 a.m. Monday morning. Yankee officials let these fans sit outside the stadium until this morning, hours before Game 1, to tell them that there were no tickets available. Stay classy, Steinbrenners.

Plus, as disappointing as it is that he never lived up to his contract with the Mets, it would be fun to see Pedro Martinez beat the Yankees again. Go Phils. 

And that's (hopefully) the only time I'll ever have to say that.

MLB Championship Series Preview

The ALCS and NLCS have been set, and I was three-for-four on my picks, missing on just the Cardinals over the Dodgers. The Dodgers are a better baseball team, but I was very surprised that the top of the Cardinals rotation couldn't hold up in a short series. Once Carpenter lost Game 1, that series was over in my book. But as it ended up, the four best teams in baseball remain.

ALCS
Yankees vs. Angels

The big news heading into this series is the Yankees plan to use a three-man rotation consisting of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. This means Sabathia will pitch Games 1, 4 and 7, throwing Game 4 on three-days rest and Game 7 on four-days rest. Burnett and Pettitte will both be pitching on four-days rest.

This is nothing new for Sabathia, who carried the Brewers to the playoffs last season pitching his final three starts on three-days rest, as well as Game 2 of the division series against the Phillies. He allowed two earned runs in the regular-season starts, but was hit hard for five earned in 3.2 innings in the playoffs.

The Yankees have been using him on regular rest recently so fatigue should not be an issue for a horse like Sabathia, like it may have been in last year's playoffs. The Angels will be using a standard four-man rotation, with John Lackey facing Sabathia in Game 1 followed by Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver and Scott Kazmir.

Both teams have excellent lineups from top to bottom, and the Yankees lack of a fourth starter won't come into play if they go with the three-man rotation. This allows the Yanks to keep Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen, where he really does seem more comfortable.

With Chamberlain potentially available for the sixth and seventh innings leading up to Phil Hughes in the eighth and Mariano Rivera in the ninth, the Yankees have a significant edge over the Angels in the bullpen. With the lineups and rotations being as even as they are, this slight edge might make the difference in this series for the Yankees. As the old adage goes, bullpen and bench wins in the playoffs. And the Yankees are deeper than the Angels in both those areas.

Prediction: Yankees, 4-3

NLCS
Dodgers vs. Phillies

The Dodgers are the best team in the National League, in my humble opinion. After what they did to a dangerous short-series team in the NLDS against the Cardinals, I'm convinced they will be a very tough out. While the Phillies have a great lineup and good starting pitching, their bullpen scares me.

Brad Lidge had two saves against the Rockies but struggled with his control, walking two batters in 1.1 innings of work. I'm not convinced he won't blow a game in this series, which could be the difference against a very good Dodgers team.

People may question the Dodgers rotation, but Vicente Padilla has been phenomenal for them over the past month, while Clayton Kershaw was very effective in Game 2 of the NLDS. Even if their rotation falters, the Dodgers' deep bullpen will be an asset all series, as will as a bench that includes Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Mark Loretta (who had a walk-off hit in Game 2) and Juan Pierre.

Cliff Lee has been a great pickup for Philadelphia, but beyond him there are question marks in the Phillies' rotation. Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ did not pitch well in the division series, and Pedro Martinez has not pitched in over two weeks. Hitters like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth will keep this series from getting out of hand, but in the end I see Joe Torre and the Dodgers playing his former team in the World Series. What a story that would be.

Prediction: Dodgers, 4-2

MLB Division Series Preview

Now that the regular season has finally come to a close after a great one-game playoff won by the Twins, it's time for my post-season predictions. But first, we will recap my All-Star break predictions.

In the American League, I was half right on Boston and New York. I had them both in, but I had Boston winning the division and boy, was I way off on that. But for once, I'm extremely happy about being wrong.

I had the Angels in the West as well but went with Chicago in the Central. That was more of a knock on the Tigers than anything else, as I didn't think they were a good enough team to make the playoffs (and they didn't). It just happened to be the Twins who caught them, as the Tigers couldn't hold a seven-game September lead, much like the Mets in 2007.

On the National League side, I was right on the Phillies in the East, the Dodgers in the West and the Rockies taking the Wild Card. But I whiffed badly on my NL Central pick of Milwaukee, who finished under .500 and a whopping 11 games behind the Cardinals.

I guess six-for-eight isn't too bad, but most of them were rather easy picks (missing the Cardinals annoys me). Hopefully I can do better with these playoff predictions.

American League

Yankees vs. Twins

Looking at the pitching matchups on paper, this series should be over even before Minnesota ace Scott Baker takes the hill in Game 4, as he was needed against Detroit to get the Twins into the playoffs. The Yankees should take Game 1 easily with C.C. Sabathia on the mound against Brian Duensing and his nine career starts, not to mention the 12-inning marathon the Twins had to endure last night, as their flight reached New York just 15 hours before tonight's first pitch.

Game 2 will be very interesting, as Joe Girardi has decided to catch Jose Molina with A.J. Burnett on the mound. Jorge Posada and Burnett have struggled to get on the same page this season and this will be a controversial move if the Yankees lose this game, taking Posada's bat out of the lineup (Hideki Matsui is likely to DH). Nick Blackburn will oppose Burnett for Minnesota.

Game 3 pits playoff veteran Andy Pettitte against former Yankee bust Carl Pavano, who was shelled in his last outing against the Tigers. Sabathia will return for Game 4 against Baker, if the series even gets that far.

In the end, the Yankees are just too good for the Twins. What Minnesota lacks in star power they make up for with scrappy players who play the game the right way, but the Yankees offense and starting pitching will be too much for the small-market Twins to handle.

Prediction: Yankees, 3-0

Angels vs. Red Sox

As a Yankee fan, I will actually be rooting for the Red Sox in this series, as the Angels always hurt New York in the postseason. That probably won't matter in the end though, because the Angels are the better team and they will win this series.

Game 1 will pit Jon Lester against John Lackey. Lester hasn't faced the Angels this season, while Lackey pitched 7.2 innings against Boston and allowed just two earned runs. I like Boston to take Game 1, but Jered Weaver looms in Game 2, and he has dominated Boston in two starts this season (13.2 innings, one earned run).

The Angels' solid top-to-bottom lineup will be too much for the young Clay Buchholz in Game 3 and with a 2-1 lead, Los Angeles will win one of the series' final two games to move on and face the Yankees.

Predictions: Angels, 3-2

National League

Phillies vs. Rockies

I like the Rockies, I really do. I just don't think they're good enough to beat the Phillies. Combine the average Rockies starting pitching with the potent Philadelphia lineup and you have a recipe for disaster.

Game 1 provides an intriguing matchup, with Cliff Lee facing Ubaldo Jimenez. Lee has struggled after a hot start following his trade from the Indians, while Jimenez is enjoying a breakout season that saw him win 15 games with a 3.47 ERA. Jimenez pitched well in the 2007 playoffs, throwing 16 innings and allowing just four earned runs, including a 6.1-inning, one-run performance to close out an opening-series sweep of the Phillies.

I like the Rockies in Game 1, but Game 2 and 3 will belong to the Phillies. Game 2 starter Cole Hamels posted a 3.32 ERA and 40:8 K:BB ratio in September and the Philadelphia offense should be able to score a few runs against Aaron Cook. The Phillies are unsure at this point who they will throw in Game 3 against Jason Hammel, but I don't see Hammel keeping their offense down.

The one chink in the Phillies armor' this season compared to last is their bullpen. Brad Lidge went from lights out in 2008 to lit up in 2009, and Ryan Madson has proven his inability to close this season on numerous occasions. These late-innings issues will come back to haunt Philadelphia eventually, just not in this series.

Prediction: Phillies, 3-1

Cardinals vs. Dodgers

The Dodgers enter the playoffs cold, having lost five of their last seven games and seven of eleven. But the Cardinals have won just two of their last ten games, with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright picking up the only two victories in that stretch.

The Dodgers' suspect rotation will be exposed against Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and the Cardinals lineup, who also have the luxury of throwing Cy Young candidates Carpenter and Wainwright in the first two games of this series against Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw.

The Dodgers bullpen is excellent with Jonathan Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill, but they may not see an opportunity to hold a lead in the first two games. L.A. has a fighting chance against Joel Piniero in game three, but I don't see this series going the distance.

Prediction: Cardinals, 3-1

MLB trade deadline passes, biggest name available goes nowhere

From the moment Toronto Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi put ace pitcher Roy Halladay on the trading block, he represented by far the best player available to contenders looking to upgrade their rotations. And with a year left on his deal after this season, the time was now for the Blue Jays to trade Halladay. Any team who acquired the Cy Young-caliber pitcher would pick up a front-line starter who could essentially affect two pennant races, and would hopefully pay a hefty price for a year and a half of his services.

The Phillies were the first team to become heavily invested in the Halladay sweepstakes, but when the Blue Jays demanded top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, outfield prospect Dominic Brown and 26-year-old pitcher J.A. Happ, who has allowed just 29 earned runs in 84.1 innings since moving into the starting rotation in May (3.09 ERA), the Phillies said thanks, but no thanks. Instead, Philadelphia traded four lower-level prospects, keeping both Drabek and Brown, to the Indians for starter Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco.

Lee was great in his first start for the Phillies, going the distance and allowing just one earned run on four hits. Despite a 7-9 record in Cleveland (thanks to some of the worst run support in baseball), Lee had a 3.14 ERA and an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio of 107:33. Winning the American League Cy Young award last season was no fluke for Lee, who has proven this season to be one of the more dependable starting pitchers in the league.

In other National League moves, the Cardinals traded three prospects for Matt Holliday (not Halladay) to give Albert Pujols some protection in the lineup. All Holliday has done in his eight games with the Cards is go 17-for-29 with a home run and eight RBI. One of the only knocks I had on the Cardinals entering the second half was a lack of protection for Pujols, and with this trade I think they have entrenched themselves as the favorites in the wide-open NL Central race.

The Brewers could not acquire another starting pitcher behind Yovani Gallardo before the deadline and Felipe Lopez won't have half the impact Holliday will in St. Louis. The Cubs were also unable to make a big splash and despite a hot start to the second half, could fizzle out as the dog days of summer wear on, especially if the aging Alfonso Soriano hits another terrible slump.

The Dodgers still control the NL West and the trade for Orioles closer George Sherrill will only strengthen the back of their bullpen alongside Jonathan Broxton and Ramon Troncoso. The Rockies and Giants have shifted their sights to the Wild Card race, with Colorado acquiring reliever Joe Beimel from the Nationals and the Giants picking up second baseman Freddy Sanchez from the Pirates to improve their middle infield. San Francisco's pitching will keep them in the race until the end, but the Rockies have been playing great baseball in all facets of the game and look to be the favorites to pick up a Wild Card berth.

Turning to the American League, the biggest splash was made by the Red Sox, who were also amidst the Halladay talks for a short period of time before they also decided Toronto's asking price was just too high. Like Philadelphia, they turned to the Indians, who were the biggest sellers at this year's deadline. Boston acquired All-Star Victor Martinez, giving up pitcher Justin Masterson and two prospects. Martinez has split time between catcher and first base this season and should be in the lineup every day, with the only question being at what position. He was hitting .284 with 15 home runs and 67 RBI and will be a welcome addition to a Boston squad that has scored just 61 runs in 14 games since the break, going 6-8 in that span.

The Martinez acquisition makes the AL East even more interesting, as the Yankees made a few moves of their own, but none of the Martinez/Holliday impact. Eric Hinske was acquired from the Pirates at the beginning of July and has had a big impact in a part-time role, slugging five home runs with eight RBI in just 21 at-bats. Hinske has been relieving Nick Swisher in right field, but has the versatility to play both corner infield positions as well.

Jerry Hairston Jr. was also acquired by the Yankees hours before the deadline for catching prospect Chase Weems. Hairston is your typical jack-of-all-trades utility man who can spell A-Rod, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano and any of the New York outfielders on a given day. Hairston is hitting .254 with eight homers and seven steals in 307 at-bats and will allow Joe Girardi to keep his starters fresh heading into the playoffs. With just a 1.5-game lead over Boston in the division, this should be an extremely fun race to watch.

All three AL Central contenders make moves at the deadline, with the Tigers trading for Mariners pitcher Jarrod Washburn, the White Sox getting pitcher Jake Peavy from the Padres, and the Twins acquiring shortstop Orlando Cabrera from Oakland. The Tigers currently lead the division but both Chicago and Minnesota are within two games of first place. I will stick to my pick of the White Sox to win the division, especially if Peavy can return from the disabled list in August like he hopes. Washburn has been a revelation this season for the Mariners, and if he can continue that success in Detroit he gives them a scary rotation along with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson, while Peavy would join Mark Buehrle and John Danks at the top of the White Sox rotation and make for another great race down the stretch.

The only AL West contender to make a move were the Mariners, who took advantage of the Pittsburgh fire sale to acquire defensive-minded shortstop Jack Wilson and unhappy starting pitcher Ian Snell. Seattle is eight games out of the Wild Card and 9.5 games back of the division-leading Angels, so this seems like more of a value trade than a move to push for the playoffs. Both the Angels and Rangers were quiet at the deadline, and I expect Texas to fall out of contention soon, leaving the Angels alone at the top of the division.

First Half Recap: National League

Unlike the American League, there are questions all over the National League. The Dodgers are running away with the West, holding a seven-game lead on San Francisco and a nine-game edge over Colorado. They have the best record in baseball through the season's first half, and that was without leading slugger Manny Ramirez for 50 games. With Manny back in tow, Los Angeles is the class of the NL (maybe even all of baseball) and likely the league's only surefire playoff team at this point in the season.

The Phillies have struggled through the season's first half due to the 14th-best pitching staff in the NL. The struggles of ace Cole Hamels have to come to an end sometime and the recent acquisition of Pedro Martinez and a potential trade for Roy Halladay show the Phillies are trying to patch their pitching holes soon. There's nowhere to go but up for the reigning World Series champions and their top-ranked offense in the second half. The Marlins, Braves and Mets are all within 6.5 games of first but if they couldn't overtake the Phillies at their worst, who's to say they can make up that ground in the second half. The Mets will be 10 games out by the time Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado all return from the DL, the Braves can't hit and the Marlins have fallen off since their hot start. The NL East is Philadelphia's to lose.

Things get interesting when you look at the NL Central. St. Louis leads the division at 49-42, but the Brewers, Cubs, Astros and Reds are all within five games of the Cardinals. The Cards are the most balanced club in the division, ranking sixth in the NL in runs scored and third in ERA. But teams are bound to start pitching around MVP favorite Albert Pujols eventually and Chris Carpenter is always one pitch away from another injury. The Cubs and Astros struggle to consistently score runs, although the Cubs could turn things around if Alfonso Soriano starts hitting and Aramis Ramirez provides the punch the middle of their order lacked while he was injured. Milwaukee can hit with Home Run Derby winner Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun and is solid in the bullpen, but will need to make a move at the deadline for a starting pitcher. Young ace Yovani Gallardo can't do it all, and none of the Brewers' other starting pitchers have an ERA under 4.50. If they pick up a solid second starter, they could overtake the Cardinals.

At this juncture, the Wild Card looks like it will come from the West, where San Francisco holds a two-game lead over Colorado and four-game cushion over Florida and Milwaukee. The Giants have a weak lineup but their 3.51 team ERA leads the National League. With young studs Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain leading the rotation and veterans Barry Zito and Randy Johnson anchoring the back end, this team may not need to score runs to hang on to their slim lead. The Rockies have gone 29-13 under Jim Tracy after an 18-28 start with Clint Hurdle as manager, and they seem to be the major contender to the Giants Wild Card lead. If they combine their solid pitching over June and July (3.73 ERA) with their third-ranked offense, they can find a way into the playoffs. And once you're there, everyone knows that anything can happen.

Predictions:
NL East - Phillies
NL Central - Brewers
NL West - Dodgers
Wild Card - Rockies

First Half Awards:
MVP - Albert Pujols, Cardinals: Was there really any question? Pujols continues to amaze fans and pundits alike with every passing season. His .332-32-87 line at the break gives him the lead in two of the three Triple Crown categories, trailing just Hanley Ramirez (.349), Carlos Beltran (.336) and Pablo Sandoval (.333) in batting average. His only real competition there is Ramirez, so we could see the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastremski in 1967 and the first in the NL since 1937.

Cy Young - Dan Haren, Diamondbacks: The choice was hard between Haren and Lincecum, but check the numbers on Haren. In 130 innings he has walked just 16 batters and allowed 89 hits (.189 opponents' batting average). He may not strike out as many batters as Lincecum, but that doesn't matter when you put less than a runner per inning on base (0.81 WHIP). His ERA is also lower (2.01 to 2.33) and he has one less win on a 38-51 ballclub. Watch for a possible second-half regression, though (3.08 career ERA before the break, 4.12 after).

Rookie of the Year - Colby Rasmus, Cardinals: If Pablo Sandoval had 16 less at-bats last season, he would be a no-brainer pick right here. Instead, Rasmus is a worthy candidate. Tommy Hanson could be the pick by season's end, but he hasn't logged enough innings for me to consider him just yet. Plus, a .278-11-34 line with 46 runs scored is impressive for a player who doesn't turn 23 until August. Many were high on Rasmus before last season, but he spent the entire season at Triple-A due to a logjam in the Cardinals outfield. That logjam is still present, but Rasmus has come on recently as the most consistent player in that crowded outfield. A 25-home run season isn't out of the question for this up-and-coming star.

All-Stars:
C - Brian McCann, Braves
1B - Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2B - Chase Utley, Phillies
3B - Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
SS - Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
OF - Ryan Braun, Brewers
OF - Raul Ibanez, Phillies
OF - Jayson Werth, Phillies
SP - Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
SP - Tim Lincecum, Giants
SP - Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
SP - Josh Johnson, Marlins
SP - Matt Cain, Giants
RP - Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
RP - Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
RP - Heath Bell, Padres

First Half Recap: American League

There is good reason why the baseball season is 162 games long. None of the division leaders after the season's first month (Toronto, Chicago and Seattle) are within three games of a playoff spot as we head into the All-Star Break. After a 27-14 start, the Blue Jays have gone just 17-32 since and find themselves 11 games behind division-leading Boston and eight games out of a Wild Card spot. And the news that they will listen to offers for ace Roy Halladay shows that they are more likely to be sellers than buyers at the trade deadline.

The rest of the AL East is shaping up like many thought, with the Red Sox leading the second-place Yankees by three games and the third-place Rays by 6.5 games. The Red Sox have been the AL's best team so far and should win the division, leaving the Yankees and Rays to fight for the Wild Card. Chicago, Minnesota, Texas and Seattle are also in the mix, with none of them more than five games out of a playoff spot.

The Rays are the only team besides the Red Sox to place in the top five in team ERA and runs per game, and in the end the Wild Card race should come down to them and the Yankees, who own the AL's top offense but one of its bottom-four pitching staffs (4.54 ERA). But those numbers are bloated by the early-season implosion of Chien-Ming Wang and C.C. Sabathia is a proven second-half stud, just look at what he did for Milwaukee last season. With A.J. Burnett pitching well of late, the Yankees rotation could straighten itself out by season's end. The bullpen outside of Mariano Rivera is another story, but the Rays have similar issues (and no Rivera).

The Tigers and the Angels lead the AL Central and AL West respectively, and both teams look to be the class of their divisions. Detroit has the third-best team ERA in the American League at 4.09 and if Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson can continue their success, the Tigers will have one of the AL's best one-two starting pitching combinations, which is crucial for success in a short playoff series. Minnesota won't go away easily and neither will the White Sox, however. Chicago may have a deeper pitching staff with Mark Buehrle, John Danks and the resurgent Jose Contreras and has a deeper lineup than the top-heavy Tigers, especially if All-Star outfielder Carlos Quentin returns healthy from plantar fascitis. If everything falls into place for them, I can see the White Sox making up their 3.5-game deficit and taking the division. Ozzie Guillen will keep that team motivated until the very end.

The Angels have the AL's fourth-best offense, scoring over 5.3 runs per contest, but are 12th in the league with a 4.79 team ERA. However, John Lackey looks poised for a good second half and with Jered Weaver enjoying a breakout season, the Angels should be solid at the top of their rotation. Texas could make things interesting if Josh Hamilton comes back strong, but Seattle should fall off as the summer rolls on, even if future Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez continues to dominate.

Predictions:
AL East - Red Sox
AL Central - White Sox
AL West - Angels
Wild Card - Yankees

First Half Awards:
MVP - Joe Mauer, Twins: He might not be flirting with .400 anymore, but in just 241 at-bats he's managed a career-high 15 home runs along with 49 RBI and 49 runs scored. He sprays the ball from foul pole to foul pole and does it with power. Not to mention he plays baseball's most demanding position and plays it well defensively. Honorable mention goes to teammate Justin Morneau and Boston's Jason Bay.

Cy Young - Zack Greinke, Royals: Greinke has 10 wins this season. As a team, the Royals have 37. A 2.12 ERA and over a strikeout-per-inning earn Greinke the nod over Toronto's Roy Halladay. He has come down to earth with just two wins in his past seven starts, but these are first-half awards, not season awards. Halladay may be the choice by season's end, if he stays in the AL.

Rookie of the Year - Ricky Romero, Blue Jays: Even if Toronto trades Halladay, they have a future ace in Romero. Despite missing a month, Romero has seven wins and a 3.00 ERA in 87 innings. A 69:30 K:BB ratio is also an impressive number for a rookie and Romero isn't slowing down, posting eight consecutive quality starts and a 5-1 record heading into the break. Detroit rookie starter Rick Porcello started the season with more hype, but Romero has pitched considerably better in the first half.

All-Stars:
C - Joe Mauer, Twins
1B - Justin Morneau, Twins
2B - Ian Kinsler, Rangers
3B - Evan Longoria, Rays
SS - Derek Jeter, Yankees
OF - Jason Bay, Red Sox
OF - Torii Hunter, Angels
OF - Carl Crawford, Rays
SP - Zack Greinke, Royals
SP - Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
SP - Felix Hernandez, Mariners
SP - Josh Beckett, Red Sox
SP - Justin Verlander, Tigers
RP - Joe Nathan, Twins
RP - Mariano Rivera, Yankees
RP - Andrew Bailey, Athletics