Butler dooms themselves with record-setting shooting woes

(photo courtesy of nytimes.com)

Last night's national championship game may have been the ugliest in NCAA history, dating back to the prehistoric days before the three-pointer and pure athleticism dominated the game. Butler shot under 19 percent and made just three two-point field goals all game! Pathetic.

There was something about this Connecticut team heading into the tournament that intrigued a lot of people, me included. They came off a historic conference tournament run to win the Big East, the nation's best conference.

If you disagree with that statement, understand that Connecticut was 9-9 in conference play, finished ninth in the Big East and won a national title. They were 17-0 this season in games against non-Big East opponents.

Butler had another great run as an under-seeded mid-major and Brad Stevens, Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack and the rest of the Bulldogs deserve a lot of credit. They just ran into a more talented team that could match their will to win.

They also ran into a team with a bonafide superstar in Kemba Walker. I wrote in my tournament preview that Walker was the type of player that could carry an otherwise average team deep in the tournament, a la Carmelo Anthony and Stephen Curry. Lo and behold, he made me look smart.

Walker shot just 5-for-19, but this was the first time this tournament Butler had to worry about a player of his caliber. Neither Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Florida or VCU had a player who could dominate like Walker.

Despite his struggles, Walker showed how important stars are in the game of basketball, maybe moreso in college with the talent disparity being greater than it is in the NBA. I like Jeremy Lamb but outside of him, the Huskies lack scoring alongside Walker. Butler did a good job defensively making Walker work for shots, but that left other players open to do some damage.

Connecticut's role players did enough to win, but if Butler could have shot even 30 percent from the field they would have won this game. Their defense was outstanding but even if you hold a team in the 50's, you still need to score that much yourself. Their lack of a superstar on offense (sorry Matt Howard, you proved why you're not a pro) cost them when it mattered most.

That's not to take anything away from the Bulldogs, who had another great run. With the way they defend, this is a team built for March Madness and if they continue to recruit guys who will work defensively and make plays, they will continue to outperform their seed come tournament time.

Until they find that one big-time offensive player (like Gordon Hayward last season) to make their title dreams come true, they will continue to fall short. Defense takes you far in March, but you still need to put the ball in the basket. Last night Butler couldn't, and that was the ultimate downfall of the underdog.

VCU and Other Final Four Fun

(photo courtesy of mensbasketballhoopscoop.com)

The 2011 Final Four will have its place in history for many reasons:

-It will be the first Final Four without a #1 or #2 seed and just the third without a #1 seed.

-VCU is just the third #11 seed to make the Final Four and the first to win five games on their way there (okay, so that one is cheating). The problem for the Rams? Both LSU (1986) and George Mason (2006) lost by double digits.

-#11 VCU and #8 Butler combine for the highest seed total to play in a Final Four game and this will be just the second Final Four with two teams seeded #8 or lower (and the first with one of those seeds being in the double-digits).

-The combined seeds of the four teams remaining is 26. The previous high was 21 in 2000, the only other time two #8 seeds or lower made it this far.

For those who think those stats are crazy, anybody who's watched most of these games understands how competitive and wild they have been. And each team has gotten here in their own special way.

#11 VCU has been torrid from beyond the arc, hitting 12 or more three-pointers in three of their five tournament games. They shot 12-for-25 against #1 Kansas yesterday, the team with the nation's best three-point field goal defense. Those were also the first three times all season the Rams hit more than 11 threes in a game.

The main hero from this tournament for VCU isn't a player, but coach Shaka Smart. He's pressed every right button and must be an expert motivator to get these kids believing they can beat anybody on any given night. If he isn't receiving offers from power-conference schools in the next year or two, something is wrong. Smart can coach.

#8 Butler is in their second straight Final Four for the same reason as the last one: Defense. Butler didn't allow a team to score 60 on them in last year's tournament until Duke scored 61 in the title game. While they have already allowed 60 twice in this year's tourney, one was an overtime game against Florida (that was tied at 60) and the other was against #1 seed Pittsburgh. I never saw this coming without lottery pick Gordon Hayward, but Brad Stevens is another great young coach.

#4 Kentucky came in hot on a six-game win streak, including three wins over ranked teams (two over Florida). Brandon Knight has struggled in two of the four games, but he also hit the game-winning shot against both Princeton and Ohio State in games where he combined for just 11 points.

Freshmen Knight and Terrence Jones are meshing nicely with veterans DeAndre Liggins, Darius Miller and Josh Harrellson, who has more than doubled his season scoring average in four tournament games. As a team, the Wildcats have the deepest talent base of the four remaining teams.

#3 Connecticut has followed up a great run in the Big East tournament with a similar run in the NCAA tournament. Behind the conference's best player in Kemba Walker (sorry, Ben Hansbrough), the Huskies head into the Final Four as the favorite to win it all. I said before the tournament that Walker is the type of player that can carry a team to a title and outside of Knight, Walker has probably been the tournament's best clutch player. And he hasn't had any off nights.

Jeremy Lamb is also enjoying a breakout since the Big East tournament began, scoring in double figures in all nine postseason games. He's averaging 16 points per game during that span compared to just over 11 on the season. When Walker leaves for the NBA next year, expect Lamb to take a big leap forward like Walker did this season.

If the top bracket on ESPN is to be believed, VCU will beat Kentucky in the championship game. The guy got the whole Final Four right, six of the Elite Eight and 28 out of 32 right in the first round. That's astonishing, but I don't think VCU will beat Kentucky. If they do, someone needs to hire this guy. Or get him to buy them lottery tickets.

I'm predicting Connecticut to beat Kentucky. The Wildcats are deeper (which shows how shallow the Huskies rotation is) but there's something about this Connecticut team this season. They started the season unranked and disrespected, won the Maui Invitational (over Kentucky) and have been ranked ever since. Walker reminds me of another undersized Big East guard who could fill it up on any night and in the NBA, I think he'll be a poor man's Allen Iverson.

All the signs point to Butler locking down defensively to limit VCU's effectiveness from long range, but the same signs were there against Kansas and the Rams led by double digits in the first half. I'm taking VCU to go to the title game, previous history of #11's be damned. If the five-day layoff hurts any team the most though, it's the Rams.

Now on to the title game. As one of the Morris brothers said to VCU point guard Joey Rodriguez before yesterday's game, "The run ends here." Whichever brother said it was wrong about that game, but Walker, Lamb and the Huskies will cut down the nets in Houston to cap an unbelievable postseason run.

It's funny to think some people thought UConn could lose as early as the first round because they were "tired" from winning five games in five days in the Big East tournament. With six days off between games, I don't think that's an issue anymore. It never really was in the first place.

Syracuse loss leaves Jardine's future role in doubt

(photo courtesy of annarbor.com)

I'm not going to throw all the blame for Syracuse's loss to Marquette yesterday on point guard Scoop Jardine. It was a very ugly game all around, starting with the Orange's 18 turnovers that allowed Marquette to get easy baskets in transition.

It's hard for me to say anything bad about Rick Jackson after the season he had but for a player who played every minute of the game, it's almost embarrassing to have just four rebounds. Baye Moussa Keita and Fab Melo didn't give him much for help in the post, combining for nine minutes and more fouls (three) than points, rebounds and blocks combined (two).

The fact that James Southerland played 21 minutes off the bench says a lot about Syracuse's depth issues. Brandon Triche's injury early in the second half didn't help matters, as he was unable to return and left the backcourt in the non-trustworthy hands of Jardine and Dion Waiters.

Waiters played well with 18 points on 8-of-10 shooting but didn't record an assist. And his errant pass on a late inbounds play that forced Jardine into a backcourt violation led to Darius Johnson-Odom's go-ahead three-pointer.

The Orange missed Triche's leadership at the end of that game and they missed it badly. Especially when Jardine launched an ill-advised three-pointer with 20 seconds left when Syracuse had time to attack the basket and didn't need to force a three.

The real question now becomes: What happens next year? With McDonald's All-Americans Michael Carter-Williams and Rakeem Christmas entering the fold, Jardine's place on this team next season may be on the bench.

Triche will start and if Williams can avoid a Fab Melo-like freshman season, he has a chance to crack the starting five as well. Waiters is likely even a better choice than Jardine, whose mental lapses, poor shot selection and inability to take care of the basketball at important times far outweigh the occasional highlight he provides.

Christmas may be the replacement for Jackson at center unless Melo or Keita develop rapidly in the offseason and if Kris Joseph leaves for the NBA (which he shouldn't), C.J. Fair might work his way into the starting lineup. Either way, I think most Syracuse fans would agree that Jardine should not start next season unless he changes the way he plays, which is unlikely at this stage of his career.

NCAA Tournament: Southeast/Southwest Preview

(photo courtesy of rivals.yahoo.com)

Southeast Region:

Favorite: #1 Pitt

If the #2 and #3 seeds in this region were stronger, I would have no issue listing one of them as the favorite. But with Florida being the most overrated #2 in the tournament and BYU missing one of its best players because he had a sex drive, Pitt has by far the easiest road to the Final Four. They have good balance on offense and a solid defensive team, but I just don't see them as a contender for the national title. In this bracket though, they're the best there is.

Main contender: #5 Kansas State

This may look like a stretch to some, but let's not forget the Wildcats were a top-five team at the start of the year. Butler was ranked highly at the beginning of last season and was a #5 in the tournament, does anybody remember how far they went? And this Kansas State team is arguably more talented than last year's Bulldogs, Gordon Hayward aside. The problem is, this team can easily lose to grossly-underseeded Utah State tomorrow. This region is a potential mess.

Sweet 16 sleeper: #12 Utah State

I mentioned the Aggies already, but it bears repeating that this is a top-25 caliber team that was highly disrespected by the committee. I hate their matchup against Kansas State, but I think whoever wins can make serious noise. I like Wisconsin but they struggle away from home and I wouldn't be surprised to see them ousted by Belmont in the first (I mean, second) round either. Utah State's ceiling might be as high as the Elite 8. Honorable mention here goes to #10 Michigan State, who could upend Florida to make the Sweet 16.

Southwest Region:

Favorite: #1 Kansas

The Jayhawks are one of the deepest teams in the country and probably have the second easiest path to the Final Four after Pittsburgh. Second-seeded Notre Dame lacks the defensive chops to make a deep run and the first time their shots don't fall will be their last game. The Jayhawks are talented and likely motivated after losing before the Sweet 16 last season, so Bill Self's crew should be able to make a Final Four run.

Main contender: #4 Louisville

Like Tom Izzo, Rick Pitino usually coaches his teams further than their seed would suggest. A potential Sweet 16 matchup with Kansas might decide who comes out of this region, as I think these are the two best teams in the bracket. With all due respect to Purdue, no Robbie Hummel likely means no Final Four for the Boilermakers. It's too bad because with Hummel, they're a title contender.

Sweet 16 sleeper: #12 Richmond

Like Utah State, the Spiders are underseeded and dangerous. I think their game with Vanderbilt will be closely contested all the way through and whenever you let the lower seed hang around, it can spell trouble. This region, along with the East, is least likely to have a double-digit seed representative in the Sweet 16 because of the relative strength in the top four seeds. But if anybody here can do it, it's Richmond. They will need to play the game of their lives against Louisville to get there though.

NCAA Tournament: East/West Preview

(photo courtesy of rockmnation.com)

East Region:

Favorite: #1 Ohio State

The Buckeyes are the top-seeded team in the tournament and rightfully so. They can do everything on the offensive end with Jared Sullinger dominating on the low block and Jon Diebler and David Lighty firing threes. Ohio St. is also in the top 10 in defensive efficiency, making them one of the country's most complete teams.

Main challenger: #3 Syracuse

Syracuse, North Carolina and Kentucky are all in the same boat. They aren't elite like the Buckeyes, but they all have one thing they can ride deep in the tournament. The 2-3 zone will always be an advantage for Syracuse in March, as most teams just don't face many zones during the season. Kentucky has NBA-level talent at the top but lacks depth, as does UNC. The Tar Heels also have a true freshman at point guard.

I think the Orange have the best chance to face Ohio State in the Elite 8 and also to beat them. North Carolina struggles to shoot the three-pointer at times and that will hurt them in their likely Sweet 16 matchup with Syracuse's 2-3 zone, which is susceptible mainly to teams with strong outside shooters. But I still think Ohio State is the pick to come out of this region.

Sweet 16 sleeper: #7 Washington

Isiah Thomas (the godson of former Pistons great and Knicks bust Isiah Thomas) led this team to a Pac-10 Tournament title with a late buzzer-beater and the perenially underrated Huskies have a chance to make some noise. North Carolina feel behind big early against both Miami and Clemson in the ACC Tournament and if they do so against the Huskies, they may find it difficult to crawl back into the game.

Also, don't be surprised if #11 Marquette gets by Xavier and even Syracuse as well. Don't forget the Golden Eagles did win their only regular-season matchup against the Orange.

West Region:

Favorite: #1 Duke

Rumors of a Kyrie Irving return leave the true potential of the Blue Devils in doubt: With Irving, they are the nation's best team; without him, they may not even advance past the Sweet 16. I think the West is the most difficult region in this tournament, as the top four seeds were all ranked in the top 10 at one point this season.

Main challenger: #4 Texas

I think San Diego State is a very good basketball team and many people are likely to disrespect them because they play in the Mountain West. The fact remains that their only two losses this season were to a full-strength BYU team who was consistently ranked in the top 10. With the right draw, I would consider them a Final Four possibility. This is not the right draw.

Despite their recent struggles, the Longhorns are probably the best bet of any team ranked fourth or lower to reach the Final Four. They are one of the best defensive teams in the country and the only real question is whether their youth will hurt them. Then again, what great college team isn't young these days? People forget that they ended Kansas' home winning streak earlier this season and were in contention to be #1 in the country before a few shaky conference losses.

Sweet 16 sleeper: #11 Missouri

When the Tigers are only the 11th-best team in your region, you know you have your work cut out for you. Cincinnati and Connecticut aren't ideal matchups for Mike Anderson's team, as their main weakness lies in the post where the Bearcats and Huskies have big bodies residing. But if they can get past Cincinnati and Connecticut has to work to beat Bucknell, the potential fatigue of Kemba Walker and the Huskies could help Missouri surprise and reach the Sweet 16. It's a longshot, but stranger things have happened.

Southwest/Southeast bracketology coming soon...

Big East Tourney: Official Issues and More

(photo courtesy of nydailynews.com)

After three days of watching the Big East tournament, I have a few observations. I'll start with the attention-grabbing incident involving the referees from the St. John's-Rutgers game.

-How do you not blow the whistle? Even if you're not staring at the clock as an official, it was pretty obvious from Tim Higgins' point of view that Justin Brownlee stepped out of bounds before the horn went off. This wasn't a toe on the line either, he was way out of bounds. Even if Higgins somehow didn't see that, how do you not call a travel?

Brownlee picked up his dribble with three seconds left and continued to move before launching the ball into the stands. I've also heard cries for a technical foul to be called once the ball was thrown into the crowd. I'm glad nobody called a technical foul, because that's a terrible way to hand a team a game, but someone should have blown a whistle for any of these three violations.

If a whistle was blown, the play could have been reviewed and Rutgers would've been given the ball with 1.7 seconds left and a chance to win the game. After the way they played the Johnnies in what was essentially a road game, they deserved that opportunity. And the officiating crew that "resigned" also deserved some punishment.

The other issue here is the referee rotation. Why should officials have to work consecutive games? Unlike the players on the court, refs aren't well-conditioned athletes. They don't get to sit on the bench for minutes at a time to rest either. The Big East should have a different officiating crew for every game in future years to prevent things like this from happening.

-Connecticut's win over Pittsburgh surprised many, but not me. That pick alone may win me my Big East Tournament bracket, but it's surprising to see how a number placed next to a team can influence people's opinion of that team so greatly. Connecticut finishing ninth in the Big East regular-season standings made people think there was a vast difference between them and top-seeded Pittsburgh. There isn't.

Any college team with a lottery-type talent like Kemba Walker for the Huskies will always have a chance to pull an upset. And how much of an upset was it really? Connecticut is a top-20 team and even found their way into the top-10 at one point after starting the season unranked.

They're a better team than Georgetown and Cincinnati, who finished ahead of them in conference, and you can argue they are on a similar level if not better than West Virginia and St. John's. I wouldn't even be surprised if they beat Syracuse tonight and went on to win the tournament, although that would be mighty impressive to win five games in five days.

This is a good young basketball team peaking at the right time, and with a player like Walker on the floor you always have a chance late in games. People slept on UConn and will likely do the same come time for the NCAA Tournament, which is a huge mistake. This team has Elite 8 potential if they get the right matchups; Walker is that Carmelo Anthony/Stephen Curry-type of college player who can carry a team deep into March.

-No other real surprises or storylines have come out of the first three days, but I will say that it's now obvious to me that the top six teams in the Big East (Pitt, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John's and Connecticut) are better than the other five who will likely make the tournament (Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati and Villanova).

If Chris Wright makes it back for the Hoyas, they have an outside shot at the Sweet 16. But without Wright in the lineup, they are a prime candidate for a first-round upset if they get a top-eight seed. Austin Freeman is great, but without Wright that offense doesn't really go.

Who's the best team in college basketball?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/615658-college-basketball-with-the-nations-top-four-teams-losing-whos-the-best

What's going on in the Big East?

(photo courtesy of washingtonpost.com)

First, Seton Hall blew out Syracuse in the Carrier Dome on Tuesday night. Then, Providence dismantled Villanova last night. Why are two of the Big East's worst four teams beating two of their best so decisively? It's called parity and it's rampant in the nation's best conference.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology has 11 of the 16 teams in the Big East making the NCAA tournament. That may seem like an absurdly high number for one conference but when you look at how the Big East has played out, it may actually be one or two too few.

Only four of the league's 16 teams haven't beaten a ranked opponent (Cincinnati, Rutgers, South Florida, DePaul). Cincinnati is 18-3, but those three losses have come against the only ranked teams they've played (Villanova, Syracuse, Notre Dame). The other three have seemingly no chance to make the tournament, but there are 13 teams in this conference that might have legitimate cases by season's end.

Lunardi had neither Providence nor Seton Hall in his 11 tournament teams, but his last update was January 24. That included the Friars' victory over Louisville, but not their blowout of Villanova. It also didn't take into account the Pirates' domination of Syracuse on Tuesday night. So what gives?

There will not be 13 teams from the Big East in this year's NCAA tournament, I can tell you that much. But who should get the final few spots?

Providence is just 2-6 in conference play, but they've won their last two against top teams. Seton Hall has Connecticut, Villanova and Notre Dame left on their schedule. What happens if they win one or two of those games?

Marquette and St. John's are in as of right now. The Golden Eagles have a win at Notre Dame on their resume, while the Johnnies have beaten both Notre Dame and Georgetown at Madison Square Garden.

The problem with St. John's resume is as follows. Their best road win all season was at West Virginia and they've been outscored by 65 points in their last three games away from the Garden, all against ranked conference foes by double digits.

If the Big East was locked in at 11 teams like Lunardi has in now, Seton Hall would still be out and St. John's and Providence would be fighting for the 11th spot. But if Cincinnati proves unable to beat a ranked team with five games remaining against top-25 conference opponents they may play themselves out of the picture with just a .500 conference record.

If Seton Hall and Providence can stay hot and pick up another quality win or two, they will be almost assured of a spot in the dance. And if St. John's can't beat a ranked team on the road, their chances will diminish greatly.

Bottom line: The Big East is awesome and well-deserving of 10-plus teams in the tournament. They probably have 13 teams that deserve a spot, but that's not happening. All I know is that it's going to be awesome following the final half of the conference schedule to see who plays their way in or out of March Madness.

And my hatred for Duke grows stronger...

First off, congratulations to the Duke Blue Devils. They beat every team that was put in front of them and for that, they are deserving of the national title. Let's be honest, though. If this wasn't the year of parity with a lack of dominant teams at the top, Duke would've never won this title.

Yes, Duke is highly ranked every year and usually a high seed come March Madness. But usually that high seed turns to heartbreak for Duke fans when they severely underperform to expectations, at least since their previous title in 2001. The facts back me up on this:

-Duke had been a #2 seed the last 2 seasons, losing in the Sweet 16 in 2009 and the second round in 2008.
-They were a #6 seed in 2007 and lost in the first round.
-They were a #1 seed each year from 2004-2006, making just one Final Four (2004) and never advancing to the title game.
-In 2002 and 2003 they made the Sweet Sixteen as a #1 and #3, respectively.

Only twice in the previous eight seasons had Duke lived up to their tournament seeding and never once did they outperform it. Again, they did what they had to do this season (win every game) and deserved the title but all in all, they are perennial underachievers who receive too much respect from the media and tournament committee year in and year out.

Speaking of too much respect from the committee, Duke was given BY FAR the easiest road to the Final Four of any top seed. The fact that the #5 seed made the Final Four in both Kansas and Syracuse's region shows the depth on that side and Kentucky had to deal with a team that had a legitimate case to be a top seed in West Virginia, not to mention a severely underseeded Cornell squad.

Duke, on the other hand, got to play the play-in winner followed by Cal and a short-handed Purdue team. Baylor was a decent challenger, West Virginia wasn't and Butler gave the Blue Devils a serious run for the title. But Duke was handed three easy victories to the Elite 8 and fellow top seeds Kansas, Syracuse and even Kentucky were not.

I have never wanted a shot to go in more than Gordon Hayward's half-court heave at the buzzer last night which would've given Butler a one-point win, but Hayward was just a little too strong despite being right on line. This Butler team will be back next year to make another deep tournament run (and hopefully win me more money when I finally decide to bet on them!)

Duke fans can revoice all they want because hey, they're the champions. It will never come with an asterisk, but it might as well. Duke was treated as the tournament's top seed despite not earning that distinction throughout the season and, while they proved to be the last team standing, it didn't come without help from the committee and a watered-down field. Excuse me while I go hug the toilet in disgust.

The Final Four that nobody predicted

Two #5 seeds, Michigan St. and Butler. A #2 seed that should've been a #1, West Virginia. And the #1 that everybody said was the least deserving despite having the easiest road, Duke. No wonder I predicted just one of the four participants (that's somewhat of an accomplishment, considering all the people who didn't have any).

I don't know a single person who had Butler or Michigan St. in the Final Four, but it's hard to deny that these teams earned their spots. Butler showed why they were one of the best defensive teams in the country, forcing 18 turnovers in their upset over Syracuse and shutting down Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen in the first half against Kansas St. Clemente and Pullen finished with 32 combined points on the game, but needed 30 shots to get there.

Michigan St. has the best tournament coach in the country, but didn't have to face a top three seed on their way to Indianapolis. But they beat Northern Iowa who knocked off #1 Kansas and Tennessee who took care of #2 Ohio St. And then the Spartans took care of the Volunteers, one of the more talented teams in a stacked region despite being a #6 seed. Yes, they beat Maryland and Tennessee in the final five seconds, but you have to win games like that in the tournament.

As for West Virginia and Duke, some people may have actually predicted that. Kentucky's lack of experience and three-point shooting came back to haunt them (like I had been saying since January) and an experienced Mountaineer team took advantage. Baylor didn't box out late in the game and gave Duke way too many second-chance opportunities, which proved to be the difference (and the extra points that killed my Baylor +5 bet). If the Bears won, I would've had two of the Final Four right, no small feat this season.

But now the real question is who wins? I do think West Virginia is the best team remaining and a team I had in the title game from the start. Duke was able to get the best of a weak region and didn't have to face a tough opponent until the Elite 8, since a Hummel-less Purdue team barely counts. I'm going to stick with my West Virginia in the title game pick not just because I made it, but because they're a better team than Duke. They just can't expect the Blue Devils to be as pathetic from distance as Kentucky was.

As for the other side, defense wins championships and my guess is that the loss of Kalin Lucas has to catch up with the Spartans sometime. And against a top-10 caliber team (people forget Butler was highly ranked at the season's start) that has great hands and feet on defense, the loss of Lucas at the point might hurt even more. You would think Butler's run has to end soon, but I think they can make it to the final against West Virginia.

Kudos to anybody who has this championship game right (or any combination of it). As much as I love West Virginia, the best team from the country's best conference if you still consider the Big East top dog, I think Butler (not Da'Sean) is on a mission. They are completely healthy, something you can't say about the Mountaineers, and they have enough inside-outside balance to be dangerous on offense. I'm curious to see how they will match up with Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks down low and on the boards, as they haven't yet seen a team with a frontcourt that deep, having dodged Arinze Onuaku in the Syracuse game.

So my thoughts are Butler over West Virginia. Meaning you should probably take Michigan St. and Duke, with Duke winning. Don't mess this one up people!

Who Makes the Final Four? Take Two

How things change in four days. I only lost one Final Four team, but when you're only in the Sweet 16 that's not something to boast about. The attack of the killer underdogs circa 2006 has returned with a vengeance in 2010, with #12 Cornell, #11 Washington, #10 St. Mary's and #9 Northern Iowa all crashing the Sweet 16 party.

Could we see an Elite 8 that includes all four of these teams? It's possible, though highly improbable. At this point, nobody should doubt that the Big Red from Cornell can play with anybody in the country including Kentucky after demolishing Temple and Wisconsin, not to mention a near-victory early in the season at Kansas. This will be a great game and I'll be rooting for the boys from central New York, but in the end the first-round NBA talent will take over. Jeff Foote's presence will be slightly negated by DeMarcus Cousins and unless Ryan Wittman hits 6 or 7 three-pointers, I think it's Wildcats by single digits.

Washington gets a talented West Virginia squad that just lost its starting point guard and second-best three-point shooter. For a team that struggles to score, especially from the outside, Darryl Bryant's injury could be a death blow to a squad with legitimate title hopes. Washington loves to push the pace and score lots of points, with defense falling by the wayside. If they light up the scoreboard an upset isn't out of the realm of possiblity, but the Mountaineers have too much talent even without Bryant to let that happen, right?

St. Mary's and Baylor might be the best game of this weekend. Omar Samhan is a definite NBA prospect whose stock has soared in the past week, but Baylor's Ekpe Udoh has the goods down low to at least contain Samhan. I like Udoh's supporting cast more than I like Samhan's and I picked Baylor to go to the Final Four from the start so I can't look back now, but this game is a toss-up.

Northern Iowa will beat Michigan St. I said it and it's not that unbelievable, particularly after Kalin Lucas' season-ending injury. The Panthers might as well be favored in this game now and I don't think even Tom Izzo can outcoach momentum and hot shooting from Ali Farokmanesh. The Panthers will be the lowest seed to crash the Elite 8.

As for the other games, I'm boring. I picked a lot of upsets early (and got a bunch right!) but my bracket is still garbage. I originally said upsets early and chalk late and I will stick to that. Ohio St. will ride Evan Turner over Bruce Pearl's well-coached Tennessee squad, Syracuse will take out Butler as long as the Bulldogs don't scorch the nets from long range and Duke will finally land the death blow to Purdue in the battle of "who is more overseeded."

As for Xavier-Kansas St., maybe I'm not so boring. I'm choosing Jordan Crawford and the Musketeers despite the fact that I have been thoroughly impressed by the way the Wildcats have played through two rounds. Jacob Pullen won't go for 30 points again and if it wasn't for this pick, I'd be throwing out all chalk except for Northern Iowa, which might as well be chalk. I doubted K-State against Jimmer Fredette and BYU and you know how the saying goes...burn me once, shame on you, burn me twice, shame on me.

A March to remember! And a bracket to forget...

The tournament cooled off a bit from a scorching first day on Friday, but it picked up right where it left off on Saturday. Northern Iowa's shocking upset over tournament favorite Kansas came a few hours after a less surprising upset when Omar Samhan and St. Mary's beat a Villanova team that was lucky to make the round of 32. Washington capped the night with an 18-point win over New Mexico, the same margin of victory for fellow Cinderella Cornell the next day against Wisconsin.

Looking back at my busted bracket (which I predicted on this very blog), there were a few things I would change in hindsight. Losses by Georgetown and Kansas are ones you can't really kick yourselves over because nobody saw that coming, but losing the Jayhawks as champions already was unfortunate. I always eliminate a #2 before the Sweet 16, but Kansas St. was the wrong choice, particularly with the way their backcourt was able to shut down Jimmer Fredette and BYU's offense. My gut after the selection show told me Villanova was the weakest #2 and while I almost chose St. Mary's to beat them, I didn't.

I knew New Mexico was an overseeded #3, but I chose Marquette to knock them off. And considering Washington needed a buzzer beater (none of which went my way in this tournament), I don't regret that pick too much. UTEP and Utah St. were definitely the wrong #12 seeds to put in the Sweet 16 and while I liked Cornell, I figured so many people would pick them to upset Temple that it wouldn't be much of an upset in pool terms. But hindsight is 20/20 and they were obviously the strongest #12 with a great second-round matchup (they did win by 18!).

I think Purdue shocked everybody by playing like the Boilermakers did when they actually had Robbie Hummel in the lineup and it's hard to regret picking Siena in the upset, all things considered. Murray St. was the #13 to pull the upset, but needed a buzzer beater to do it.

For anybody who wants to start a new bracket from here on out because theirs is ruined, join my second chance pool. Details are on my Facebook profile page. Tomorrow, I'll talk about what I expect from this weekend's set of games. Don't worry, I expect to be wrong about everything again.

Thursday was the best first day I've ever seen

Three overtime games, one that went 2 OT and seven that were decided by a three-pointer or less were the story on Thursday. I sat there watching games all day and it's hard for me to say I was ever bored, except when there wasn't a game for a few minutes. I've only been watching the whole first weekend for six years or so (thanks to high school classes), but I can't say the other five were anywhere near the sixth.

First, props to Lehigh and Robert Morris for keeping 1-16 and 2-15 games close. Robert Morris deserved to win that game against Villanova as Scottie Reynolds was out of rhythm from the start coming off the bench. If not for him getting bailed out on a few real tough foul calls late, the Wildcats might not be the only Big East team that won on Opening Day. Once that game went to overtime, Villanova had it wrapped up against a foul-laden Robert Morris squad.

Which leads me to my other point about the best conference in college basketball. Where were Georgetown, Marquette and Notre Dame yesterday? I wasn't surprised by the Irish if you look at my bracket, but I had the Golden Eagles and Hoyas pegged for the Sweet 16. While Marquette lost at the buzzer to a good team from a bad conference, Georgetown got smashed by an average team from a bad conference. The Hoyas were as inconsistent all season as they are talented, but I can't say anyone thought Ohio would be their downfall.

BYU needed two overtimes and a terrible Florida possession at the end of the first extra period to beat the Gators, and Jimmer Fredette showed how he can put a team on his back with 37 points. He'll need a repeat performance along with Michael Loyd's 26 to combat the Kansas St. backcourt of Danny Clemente and Jacob Pullen. In the other overtime game, Ismail Smith hit a game-winner for Wake Forest, who was slightly less terrible than Texas in one of the day's worst-played games.

But the highlight of the day may have come from the Murray St. Racers, who upset #4 Vanderbilt with a buzzer beater in the day's first set of games. Out of the day's first four games, two went to overtime and the other two were decided by one point. It was a great start to a great day, and Friday will definitely have trouble matching the excitement of yesterday.

Who wins this year's NCAA title?

After my last two posts, we've found our way to the Final Four with Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia and Baylor. It's not too far-fetched in my eyes but not too chalky and it includes four of the top 10 teams in college basketball (no, I don't care that Baylor is ranked 17th, look at the Big 12 this season). And yes, I have two Big East-Big 12 matchups picked, since they were hands down the two best conferences this season.

It's a shame that the committee gave Syracuse the last #1 seed because I think the Orange and the Jayhawks are the two best teams in this Final Four, with a slight consolation prize going to West Virginia. Assuming Arinze Onuaku is at full strength by the Final Four, Kansas-Syracuse will pit the two deepest teams in the nation against each other.

Syracuse plays just seven players, but all seven could find their way into almost any starting five in the country. The Jayhawks go eight deep and both teams have great talent at the top. Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry and Marcus Morris all score in double figures for Kansas, while Syraucse has Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins, Kris Joseph, Rick Jackson and Onuaku putting up over 10 points per game.

Everyone wonders how Kansas will match up with Syracuse's 2-3 zone and the answer is with great guard play from Collins. He can penetrate the top of that zone and kick it out to open shooters like Henry, Brady Morningstar and Tyshawn Taylor for open threes, which Kansas hits at an impressive 41% clip. And when the defense doesn't collapse on Collins, he's bound to pull up for an elbow jumper or take it to the hoop and finish or dump it to Aldrich for an open dunk. Offensively for the Jayhawks, everything will run through Collins like it has all season.

If Syracuse wants to win this game, they will need to feed the post and try to get the aggressive Aldrich (3.5 BPG) in foul trouble early. Kansas can match Syracuse's depth on the low block but attacking the basket would be much easier without Aldrich, as the Jayhawks have no other players who average more than a block per game.

This rematch of the 2003 national championship should be a great game but I think Kansas will be too much for Syracuse in the end. Call it 73-68, Jayhawks.

A West Virginia-Baylor matchup may have less star power than Syracuse-Kansas...or so you think. LaceDarius Dunn leads Baylor with 19.4 PPG while Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udoh average almost 30 points combined themselves. For the Mountaineers, Da'Sean Butler and his 17.4 scoring average has proven his clutch play and leadership throughout the season and especially in the Big East tournament, beating Cincinnati and Georgetown in the final moments.

I do love how the matchups have shaped up in my Final Four, as both games will pit teams with similar styles and strengths against each other. Butler and Dunn should both have big games, but I can envision Butler with the ball at the end of a close game and we all saw what he could do in those situations. Give me a Mountaineer victory with a Butler basket at the buzzer, 69-67.

That leaves Kansas and West Virginia to battle it out for the title. Not the two best teams in country, but two of the top five for sure. But only one can be the best and it will be the team that started and finished at the top.

The Kansas Jayhawks are the best team in the nation this season with the inside-outside punch of Collins and Aldrich, not to mention a wing player like Henry, interior depth with the Morris twins and ball-moving guards like Morningstar and Taylor who can knock down open shots. West Virginia is an excellent basketball team but not quite on Syracuse's level in terms of depth and that will show against the Jayhawks, who already disposed of the aforementioned Orange.

Butler will get his, as will Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks down low. If West Virginia can shoot well and crash the offensive glass hard when they miss, they might pick up a few extra baskets that could make the difference. But in the end superior guard play and depth will make Kansas into this year's national champion, 76-69.

More Madness: Who Makes the Final Four?

Anybody who has ever been in a bracket with me knows that I never get the Final Four right. Ever. I never really even get three of the teams right. For whatever reason, my basketball knowledge doesn't seem to extend past the first two or three rounds. My Final Four sleeper never makes it and I always sleep on one of the top seeds. That being said, nobody should put Baylor in the Final Four and I'm sure since I don't have Kentucky in, they'll win the title. But here goes:

-East
Only the East in my bracket includes all the top four seeds in the Sweet 16. Kansas is way too talented and way too deep for Maryland, but Ohio St.-Georgetown will be an awesome game. If Chris Wright is on his game, which he has been lately with seven straight double-digit scoring games and 36 assists in those seven games, I think Georgetown will win. But if he goes back to the inconsistent ways (seven single-digit scoring games in Big East play), Ohio State will. I've never been one to trust Wright and without a big game from him, Evan Turner will find a way to win it for the Buckeyes.

Kansas is a different story. Ohio State does not have the supporting cast around Turner to match the likes of Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry and the Morris'. Ohio St. was the first time off the 1-line I thought could make it, but they needed to see Duke or even Kentucky. Jayhawks to the Final Four.

-West
This is where my bracket will be made or broken. I don't think many people have UTEP, Xavier and BYU joining Syracuse in the Sweet 16, but all three of those squads have 18+ point scorers (UTEP's Randy Culpepper, Xavier's Jordan Crawford and BYU's Jimmer Fredette) who can put a team on their back. There's usually at least one #2 that falls in the second round and this year, I think it's Kansas State.

UTEP's run will end against Syracuse, especially if Arinze Onuaku returns for the third round in Salt Lake City. BYU will use their geographical advantage to beat Xavier and Jordan Crawford's major claim to fame will remain his dunk over LeBron James over the summer. That geographical advantage won't be enough for the Cougars to down the Orange though, as Syracuse becomes the second #1 in the Final Four.

-East
All chalk except for #6 Marquette over #3 New Mexico, and chalk will win again. As the fifth best team in the tournament and a team that would've been deserving of a top seed, West Virginia will take care of conference foe Marquette, who they beat 63-62 at home in their only regular season meeting. Kentucky is way too good to lose to Wisconsin and their toughest Sweet 16 matchup could come from Cornell if the Big Red can pull a few upsets.

-South
Why does Duke have what seems like the easiest road to the Final Four? Outside of the bracket's weakest #2 in Villanova and an underrated #3 in Baylor, no one else has a chance here. Purdue without Robbie Hummel? Texas A&M? An overseeded Notre Dame team? Richmond? Please.

What's even sadder is that even with this gift, I don't see Duke moving beyond the Elite 8. And if Louisville can beat Cal, they may miss the Sweet 16 altogether. They are the top seed most likely to play a double-digit seed in Sweet 16 and that's exactly what I have, with them able to take care of Utah St. Baylor should've been #2 in this bracket and they will prove that with a win against Villanova.

Duke should be intimidated by these Bears, who are long and athletic and a very tough matchup for the Blue Devils. I think Duke would have a better chance at being Villanova, but Baylor has all the ingredients to take them out and reach the Final Four.

Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, Baylor. With my luck, you can be sure at least one or two will be knocked out by the end of this weekend.

Let the Madness ensue!

In the first of a three-part series culminating on Wednesday, I will break down my thought on the first two rounds of this year's NCAA Tournament. It's the most wonderful time of the year...

-Expect all the #1 seeds to make the Sweet 16
Over the last five years, all 20 top seeds have won two games in the tournament. Now that's not the only reason I'm picking Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky and Duke to make the Sweet 16, but it sure helps. Neither UNLV nor Northern Iowa stands a chance against Kansas and the same can be said for Texas and Wake Forest against Kentucky. I have Florida State beating Gonzaga in the West and while Gonzaga could be a difficult matchup for Syracuse, I don't see that game happening. The only real chance for an upset here is Louisville beating Duke. Rick Pitino's squad beat Syracuse twice this season but in their other six games against top 25 teams, they were 0-6. Advantage Blue Devils.

-Pick chalk in the West and you may be surprised
Say what you want about UTEP being one of the final at-large teams in the tournament, but don't count them out as a Sweet 16 sleeper. They match up well with Butler while Vanderbilt is overseeded and could lose to Murray State, one of two 13 seeds who stand a chance in the first round (Siena being the other). At the bottom of the bracket, I think BYU is the most underseeded team in this tournament and could surprise with a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 appearance, especially with the Salt Lake City advantage once they reach the third round. Xavier also has what it takes to make a Sweet 16 and the only top four seed I have in the Sweet 16 here is Syracuse. It's ballsy, but not as far out as most people would think.

-As many as three double-digit seeds could crash the Sweet 16 party
I already talked about how well the bracket sets up for UTEP, but fellow 12 seeds Cornell and Utah State have similar Sweet 16 aspirations. The Temple-Cornell matchup has the potential to be one of the tournament's best first-round games and Wisconsin, while talented, is no lock for the Sweet 16 (although they should have no trouble with Wofford). If Utah State finds their way past Texas A&M they could very easily face 13th-seeded Siena, who faces a Purdue team that has struggled mightily without Robbie Hummel. A Utah State-Siena matchup isn't too far-fetched and would guarantee at least one double-digit seed in the Sweet 16. Don't forget it's happened in 13 of the past 14 years.

-Expect upsets
Yes, the last three years have been very chalky. Everyone has heard all the analysts talking about how there is no dominant team this season and that should lead to upsets. I think there is an upper echelon limited to 10-15 teams with Elite 8 potential limiting late-round upsets a la George Mason in 2006, but early on I expect a lot of shocking results. I would not be surprised to see two 13 seeds, three 12 seeds and two 11 seeds win in the first two days of the tournament. And that's really what March Madness is all about: The underdogs.

Interest in women's basketball still nonexistant despite UConn's record streak

I hate to say that I would rather watch the North Carolina men's team lose 11 out of 16 conference games and go 16-15 this year than watch the Connecticut women roll off 71 straight wins but I would; women's basketball just isn't entertaining. To me, it's the equivalent of Division III men's basketball and I'm talking about the WNBA here. Women's college basketball is more akin to 14-17 year-old boys playing in high school.

I'm not debating that these girls have talent. Some can shoot, some have handle, and occasionally one can dunk. Basketball at its best is a fast-paced, high-flying game and no offense, but women just can't provide anywhere near the level of entertainment that men can.

Which brings me to this year's UConn women. They are awesome. They beat teams handily every time out and haven't won any of their past 71 games by less than 10 points. I think that stat more than any other proves how pathetic women's basketball really is.

You're telling me that not one of the 71 teams they've beaten has gotten lucky enough to even keep a game close. The Huskies have played plenty of top-10 teams throughout this streak, and none of those teams were good enough to lose by single digits?

A SportsCenter poll showed that 68.5 percent of people's interest in women's basketball didn't change as a result of UConn streak and 19.4 percent were actually LESS INTERESTED. How can an awesome streak like this make you less interested in a sport?!? (Note: only 12.1 percent were more interested)

My guess is because it takes up five minutes on SportsCenter whenever the ladies play. And in those five minutes, I'm sure everybody would rather see an NBA or men's college basketball highlight. Hell, put hockey on and I'm sure people would care more. And this is America!

The bottom line is that no matter how great Tina Charles, Maya Moore and the rest of the UConn team are, nobody will ever really care. I'd rather watch PBA bowling on a Sunday afternoon than any women's basketball game. I compared it to high school basketball, but I have definitely watched more televised men's high school games than women's games at any level. Sorry ladies, but there's a reason the WNBA won't exist in 10 years.

UConn, UNC could play for a title this season...in the NIT

What a difference a year makes.

Two of last season's Final Four participants, perennial powers Connecticut and North Carolina, are well below .500 in their respective conferences and seem like longshots to make the NCAA tournament. Combined, the Huskies and Tar Heels are 6-14 in conference play.

How can two teams who were so good last season fall so hard this season? The reason is pretty obvious: They lost more talent than they retained.

Connecticut lost the second overall pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, 7'3'' center Hasheem Thabeet. The Huskies also lost second-round pick A.J. Price as well as Jeff Adrien, one of two Huskies to record 1,600 career points and 1,100 career rebounds. Thabeet, Price and Adrien accounted for over 50 percent of Connecticut's scoring and rebounding last season.

North Carolina lost three first-round players in Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. They also lost Danny Green, who was taken in the second round. Those four players accounted for 66.2 points per game last season, almost 75 percent of the Tar Heels' offensive output.

What makes this season even more disparaging for fans of both teams is the fact that even making the NIT could be a difficult task. Connecticut is just 4-7 in the Big East, while North Carolina is even worse at 2-7 in the ACC. Both of these teams are still talented, but they are too inexperienced to make a serious splash down the stretch this season.

UConn kept it close with #2 (or #3, I hate the variance in the polls) Syracuse until the end, while #7 Duke needed a late run to pull away from the Heels. In the end, both Syracuse and Duke showed why they are top-10 teams and UConn and UNC aren't. They know how to finish games.

The irony is that Syracuse was not picked to be one of the nation's top teams early in the season after losing their top three scorers, Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris. But unlike Connecticut and North Carolina, the Orange had reserves.

Leading scorer Wesley Johnson and sophomore Scoop Jardine both sat out last season, Johnson due to transfer rules and Jardine due to a medical redshirt. Freshman Brandon Triche has also made a huge impact.

On the other hand, neither Connecticut nor North Carolina has a newcomer averaging more than 6 points per game. Both teams were essentially eliminated from a potential NCAA berth with their losses last night in games they needed to win to show the committee they belonged.

It may not be March Madness, but there's no shame in young teams building experience in the NIT. Now it's just up to these two teams to get there.

Downey's performance assures a third straight week with a new #1

He may be just 5-9, but Devan Downey is a big playmaker. From anyone who saw South Carolina beat top-ranked Kentucky without two of their best players, there would be no disagreement.

The Gamecocks built a 39-33 lead early in the second half, but a 14-3 run from Kentucky gave the Wildcats a five-point lead, a stretch that would take the wind out of many average, under-manned teams pushing to upset the nation's final unbeaten. President Obama was finally right on about something, having warned Ken

But Downey wasn't about to let that happen. He scored the next five points to tie the game at 47 and, when it was tied at 51 minutes later, Downey scored seven in a row to give South Carolina a 58-54 lead. And after an Eric Bledsoe turnover, multiple Kentucky defenders tried to stop Downey at the top of the key but left Austin Steed wide open underneath the hoop for an easy layup off the feed from Downey.

A John Wall three-point play with 40 seconds left cut the lead to one but he would miss a key free throw 30 seconds later, as Kentucky found themselves down four with 10 seconds to play and the ball. Turns out President Obama was finally right about something: Kentucky should have been worried about the Gamecocks at home. And while Wall will likely be the top pick in the NBA Draft, tonight belonged to Devan Downey.

He was just 9-for-29 to get his 30 points, but the degree of difficulty on the three shots he hit after the game was tied at 51 was extremely high. Shots off an inbound with two seconds on the shot clock while getting fouled and off-balance runners in the lane dropping in high off the glass speak to the fact that if you don't block a Devan Downey shot, there is always a chance it goes on no matter what it looks like. He muscles his way into the lane and to the hoop unlike a typical 175-pound guard and creates shots in sticky situations.

All he's done in SEC play is average 31.5 points per game through six games. If he keeps this up, the talk of him getting SEC Player of the Year over Wall, who may be the National Player of the Year, are legitimate.

People may look at Downey's size and say he can't play in the NBA. He's comparable to Nate Robinson without the high-flying dunking ability, as both can create their own shot in many ways and have excellent strength (speaking of which, did anybody see Robinson's three-point play against Minnesota last night?). Downey also leads the nation in steals, so can play a little defense too.

Scorers generally have the easiest transition to the pro game, as evidenced by the play of Stephen Curry this season, O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon last season and Kevin Durant the year before. Downey may end up being drafted in the second round but much like DeJuan Blair this season, he has the ability to be a second-round steal if he sees 20-25 minutes a game.

And then there was one...

With Texas' loss to Kansas St. last night, there is now just one unbeaten left in college basketball: the upstart 18-0 Kentucky Wildcats. Behind new coach John Calipari and freshman phenom John Wall, who followed Calipari to Kentucky from Memphis, Kentucky will move into the #1 spot when the next rankings come out.

That's not to say they are the best team in the nation. The Wildcats have beaten just two ranked teams, North Carolina and Connecticut, who were #11 and #12 at the time. Both teams have lost four times since playing Kentucky and are in danger of falling out of the top 25. Kentucky has just three games remaining against ranked teams in February, two of those coming against #8 Tennessee, who have played great since leading scorer Tyler Smith was kicked off the team.

The Wildcats boast three players who average 15 points per game and Wall is third in the nation in assists (6.9). Three of their top four scorers are freshman, with DeMarcus Cousins averaging 15.3 points and Eric Bledsoe averaging 11.4 per game. Despite the comfort level these three have shown, Kentucky's inexperience could come back to bite them come tournament time.

Wall is a stud and should be the top pick in the NBA Draft next April. But as a player who always has the ball in his hands on offense, he turns it over more than four times a game. Combine that with Bledsoe's 3.5 turnovers per game and Kentucky's starting backcourt averages 7.6 turnovers every night! You have to take care of the rock when the calendar turns to March and if Wall and Bledsoe continue to turn it over at this rate, Kentucky may struggle to make it to the Final Four.

Texas, Kansas, Villanova and Syracuse round out the projected top 5 and all have one loss on their resume. All three lost to ranked teams except Villanova, who fell by 10 to unranked Temple. It's difficult to tell at this point which team is the nation's best, but Kentucky (with Wall, Patrick Patterson and Cousins) and Kansas (with Sherron Collins, Xavier Henry and Cole Adrich) have the most star power. Texas and Syracuse possess the most depth and stars of their own (Damian James and Wes Johnson), not to mention Villanova's Scottie Reynolds who scores more than any other player on a top-five team (19.3 PPG)

Kentucky may end up with the best record based on their remaining schedule and the Wildcats remind me of the the 2003 Syracuse national championship team that featured one-and-done freshman Carmelo Anthony, a team went into the tournament under the radar as a #3 seed. All eyes will be on Wall come March and if he and the Wildcats falter, there are numerous other title-worthy teams ready to take their shot at winning a National Championship, including hte Orange. It's only January, but I'm already getting excited for March.