My general strategy in a dynasty rookie draft is to draft
players with an eye towards their second seasons in the league. Immediate team
situation and role is definitely important in making your picks, especially as
the draft goes on, but looking towards the following year helps to weigh the
talent factor more heavily against a player’s immediate situation.
I don’t believe Sammy Watkins is in the best spot to have a
great rookie season, and would expect more production this season out of guys
like Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin, thanks to either the offense they
landed in, their status on the depth chart or both. Watkins is more talented
than both of them and even if he isn’t posting great numbers out of the gate,
this is an example of drafting talent over situation, with a long-term focus on
building the best team.
I recently participated in rookie draft for my 16-team dynasty
league over at MyFantasyLeague.com. This league has a unique scoring
system that gives TEs 1.75 PPR compared to 1.5 for WRs and just a point for
RBs. TEs also get a point for every five receiving yards, compared to every 10
yards for WR. Rushing yards are a point for every five yards as well. IDP
scoring is weighted so as to make defensive players score nearly as much as
non-quarterbacks, who were the top 11 scorers in the league last season. There
are six taxi squad spots for drafted rookies only.
The TE-premium scoring and yardage-heavy scoring for running
backs definitely affected the draft, as does starting just one quarterback
(starting two in a league this large would be quite the disaster). I’ll paste
rounds as I go, but here is the
entire draft. After my
team finished fifth last season I was picking from the 12th spot
in each round, but I traded Tony Romo and Rashad Jennings last season and
picked up an additional first-round pick, which ended up being seventh overall.
My needs were mostly at the WR and LB position, while Andrew Luck and the
combination of Rob Gronkowski and Ladarius Green made QB and TE non-needs. I
also wasn’t aiming to address my defensive line or secondary, but RBs are
always a good target in a league this deep.
1.01
|
1.
|
Fri Aug 15 9:17:10 a.m. ET 2014
|
Pick made by ADP Rank
|
||
1.02
|
2.
|
Fri Aug 15 9:34:18 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
1.03
|
3.
|
Fri Aug 15 10:46:54 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
1.04
|
4.
|
Fri Aug 15 12:12:11 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
1.05
|
5.
|
Fri Aug 15 12:16:12 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
1.06
|
6.
|
Fri Aug 15 1:00:47 p.m. ET 2014
|
Simply like him. (Comments Added Mon Aug 18 10:34:24 a.m.
ET 2014)
|
||
1.07
|
7.
|
Fri Aug 15 2:47:53 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
1.08
|
8.
|
Fri Aug 15 3:07:35 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
1.09
|
9.
|
Fri Aug 15 3:09:35 p.m. ET 2014
|
The future of Jax football
|
||
1.10
|
10.
|
Fri Aug 15 4:46:18 p.m. ET 2014
|
really hate doing this, but u donkeys refuse to give me
one!!!
|
||
1.11
|
11.
|
Fri Aug 15 5:29:09 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
1.12
|
12.
|
Fri Aug 15 5:31:32 p.m. ET 2014
|
Really guys? Thanks! (Comments Added Mon Aug 18 2:29:17
p.m. ET 2014)
|
||
1.13
|
13.
|
Fri Aug 15 5:51:13 p.m. ET 2014
|
Johnny Football or Johnny Tebow? (Comments Added Mon Aug
18 10:34:49 a.m. ET 2014)
|
||
1.14
|
14.
|
Fri Aug 15 5:53:25 p.m. ET 2014
|
Top 5 WR in this class talent-wise. Just another Welker
concussion away... (Comments Added Mon Aug 18 2:29:01 p.m. ET 2014)
|
||
1.15
|
15.
|
Fri Aug 15 7:35:04 p.m. ET 2014
|
Bortles and Lee...just like drafting Aikman and Irvin,
Manning and Harrison, etc.
|
||
1.16
|
16.
|
Fri Aug 15 7:50:51 p.m. ET 2014
|
No arguments with the top three picks here. Watkins is the
best player on the board, while Evans is second. They are the top tier of a
loaded WR class. Cooks was the right pick in the 1.03 spot with 1.5 PPR, but
the 1.04 spot is where I start to disagree.
I think Carlos Hyde is the best RB in this class, with
Sankey not even in the same tier. This is where my eye towards 2015 defines my
board, as I expect Hyde to take over as the starter next season, while I’m not
convinced Sankey will ever be more than a committee back. Sankey’s numbers will
be better this season, and some like him more than I do, but Hyde should have
gone 1.04. As the league’s Frank Gore owner and a fan of Hyde’s skills, I tried
to move up to 1.05 to snag Hyde, but my attempts were thwarted.
When Jordan Matthews went 1.06, a pick that I understand but
wouldn’t make myself, my pick at 1.07 became very valuable. With Gronkowski and
Ladarius Green entrenched at TE, I thought I could induce a TE-needy team to
move up for Eric Ebron. I ended up trading the 1.07 with 3.08 (40th
overall) for 1.14 and 2.02 (18thoverall). Ebron went 1.07 as
expected, then Kelvin Benjamin 1.08, the player I would have taken if I stayed
in the spot. As I have only A.J. Green truly healthy at the WR spot with Marvin
Jones out and Cecil Shorts struggling with nagging injuries, I needed some
immediate production. While there are a few other receivers I like more than
Benjamin strictly from a skills standpoint – he drops too many balls and is raw
for a 24-year-old receiver - he’s looked improved in the preseason and displayed
the rapid improvement necessary for him to succeed. He will have a nice rookie
season, and has enough physical upside as a red-zone weapon to be worth this
pick long-term as well.
With Philip Rivers as his starting quarterback, Lycan
Nation’s pick of Bortles at the ninth spot makes sense. Like Benjamin, Bortles’
impressive preseason performance has jumped him up draft boards, and it seems
the Jaguars may not be able to go the entire year with Chad Henne at the helm.
I’m a fan of Bortles’ game and agreed with sitting him early, but with the
development I’ve already seen in the preseason he doesn’t look like he’ll need
the entire year. I think he’ll take over by midseason, especially if the Jags
are surprisingly competitive and Henne is holding back the offense.
Bambinos’ pick of Austin Seferian-Jenkins at 1.10 was
need-based, and a reach with the other players still on the board. Terrance
West at 1.11 was a good pick, but one I was happy to see since I was targeting
two different WRs. I made Odell Beckham the pick at 1.12, taking advantage of
pre-season injury issues to take a player who I consider a top-five skill
position talent in this draft. When Johnny Manziel went 1.13, I was able to
grab Cody Latimer at 1.14. While he needs an injury or two to have a starter-level
impact, Latimer will be no lower than third on the depth chart next season,
which could provide big numbers. With Wes Welker already concussed, I may not
have to wait until 2015, and Latimer is already reported to have a big role in the red zone. With size, speed and some of stickiest hands in this year's class, he was in my second tier of WR with Cooks and Beckham. It's crazy to think I got two of those guys outside the top 10. Manziel, on the other hand, has great fantasy upside
but was the third-ranked quarterback on my personal board. I'm a big Teddy Bridgewater fan.
Marqise Lee is a player I’m not particularly high on, but
his role and early rapport with Bortles made him a legitimate option at 1.15. His
2012 tape is excellent, so if last year was caused solely by injury issues and
poor quarterback play, maybe I’ll be wrong. He could be a player to sell high
on after a decent rookie season though, depending how he looks between the
lines. C.J. Mosley rounded out the first round at 1.16, with The Brady Bunch passing
up other offensive talent and drafting a potential LB2, which is a high-scoring
player in this league setup. Considering Arthur Brown went 1.13 last season,
this is a decent spot for the first IDP to come off the board.
2.01
|
17.
|
Fri Aug 15 8:01:45 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.02
|
18.
|
Fri Aug 15 10:31:04 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.03
|
19.
|
Sat Aug 16 1:00:32 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.04
|
20.
|
Sat Aug 16 11:18:28 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.05
|
21.
|
Sat Aug 16 11:45:22 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.06
|
22.
|
Sat Aug 16 12:41:12 p.m. ET 2014
|
1-2 years to learn. (Comments Added Tue Aug 19 4:49:47
a.m. ET 2014)
|
||
2.07
|
23.
|
Sat Aug 16 4:10:36 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.08
|
24.
|
Sat Aug 16 4:52:14 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.09
|
25.
|
Sat Aug 16 5:26:58 p.m. ET 2014
|
Two Jaguars and a Brown. Killing it!
|
||
2.10
|
26.
|
Sat Aug 16 5:37:25 p.m. ET 2014
|
OH Geez...holes are holes, they need to be filled
|
||
2.11
|
27.
|
Sat Aug 16 5:55:10 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.12
|
28.
|
Sat Aug 16 6:03:09 p.m. ET 2014
|
Sniper Bill sniping Kirksey (Comments Added Mon Aug 18
2:29:39 p.m. ET 2014)
|
||
2.13
|
29.
|
Sat Aug 16 7:18:52 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.14
|
30.
|
Sun Aug 17 12:05:27 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.15
|
31.
|
Sun Aug 17 6:38:02 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
2.16
|
32.
|
Sun Aug 17 9:29:39 a.m. ET 2014
|
I’m not particularly high on Jeremy Hill’s skillset, but he
should see at least 150 carries and goal-line work. At 2.01 in a league that
values rushing yards and touchdowns heavily, he’s a solid pick. That started
the RB run with Devonta Freeman and Andre Williams, two guys I would’ve swapped
based on format and pure running ability. Williams will probably never be a
good receiver, but the running back PPR settings are depressed enough where
Freeman would need 100 yards through the air to match 50 of Williams’ on the
ground. Williams is a much better pure runner and will see touches at the
goal-line right away.
I was able to trade the 2.02 pick I had received earlier for
2.07 and 3.07. With multiple players on the board I had closely rated, I
decided adding another third-rounder was worth dropping down. I would’ve taken
Williams had I stayed at 2.02.
Chalk Dust Torture owns Peyton Manning and traded Ryan
Tannehill this offseason, so snagging Bridgewater at 2.04 is a great pick. I
was considering him if he dropped to 2.07 even with Luck on my team, simply
because I believe in Bridgewater’s talent. I think he’s better than Manziel
despite the latter’s rushing potential. Shazier at 2.05 is a player I don’t
love as a real-life linebacker, but one who will put up fantasy points in a
starting role. I think Shazier struggles too much shedding blocks, which is
important when you’re facing guards consistently in a 3-4. That comes with a
caveat though: If the Steelers can keep him clean, he’s a sure tackler who can
fly around the field and will put up big numbers.
Adams at 2.06 was a great pick, but not one I was looking to
make with two receivers on board and a hole at LB. My plan was to take Mack at
2.07 and Kirksey at 2.12 to bolster my LBs, as my core at the position consists
of an inconsistent Zach Brown and aging veterans David Harris and Larry Foote.
I’m taking a small chance with Mack, but I think he’ll rack up enough tackles
in a 4-3 to compete to be my best ‘backer right away. Clowney at 2.08 was a
reach, since he’s listed as an LB and the position is tackle-heavy, and the
aforementioned Kirksey was a great snipe at 2.09. Amaro and Robinson were good
value where they fell, especially Robinson. Like Beckham, he won’t be hurt
forever, and both he and Adams probably should’ve gone a bit earlier than they
did.
As for James White at 2.12, he’s a player whose tape I liked
coming out of Wisconsin and despite his preseason struggles, the Patriots seem
to like him as well. If Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley leave in free agency
next season, White should have a sizeable role in the offense next to another
draft pick or a free-agent signing. If he somehow gets the gig to himself, this
pick will be a huge steal.
The round ended with a few questionable picks and one good
one. Rodgers is starting in Green Bay, more due to attrition than anything else,
but he probably wouldn’t have lasted much longer in this setup. Moncrief has
loads of upside and a potentially nice 2015 role, but needs to consistently put
it together after a disappointing final year at Ole Miss. He’s a nice boom-bust
pick at that spot.
I love Pryor’s game, but the late second is too early for a
DB, who can be streamed even in this deep league. Donald was a slightly better
pick but without a DT requirement, Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood probably could have
waited until 3.05 to take him and gotten an RB like Tre Mason. Instead, he
traded out of 3.05 once Tre Mason came off the board three picks earlier.
3.01
|
33.
|
Sun Aug 17 11:06:44 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.02
|
34.
|
Sun Aug 17 11:27:37 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.03
|
35.
|
Sun Aug 17 11:32:29 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.04
|
36.
|
Sun Aug 17 12:21:50 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.05
|
37.
|
Sun Aug 17 3:04:50 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.06
|
38.
|
Sun Aug 17 4:12:10 p.m. ET 2014
|
Tackles, tackles. Dont care in what size... (Comments
Added Mon Aug 18 10:35:28 a.m. ET 2014)
|
||
3.07
|
39.
|
Sun Aug 17 5:33:00 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.08
|
40.
|
Sun Aug 17 5:41:00 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.09
|
41.
|
Sun Aug 17 5:43:18 p.m. ET 2014
|
The next Gronk...I hope
|
||
3.10
|
42.
|
Sun Aug 17 6:30:56 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.11
|
43.
|
Sun Aug 17 6:54:48 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.12
|
44.
|
Sun Aug 17 7:03:50 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.13
|
45.
|
Sun Aug 17 8:03:30 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.14
|
46.
|
Sun Aug 17 8:31:45 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
3.15
|
47.
|
Mon Aug 18 9:30:10 a.m. ET 2014
|
Career change of pace, I hope. Possibly great for PPR.
(Comments Added Mon Aug 18 10:35:57 a.m. ET 2014)
|
||
3.16
|
48.
|
Mon Aug 18 10:23:52 a.m. ET 2014
|
Like Clowney, Barr is a reach in this format, as even Von
Miller’s 18.5-sack season in 2012 barely cracked the top 20 linebackers in
scoring. Brown was a great pick at 3.05, especially amidst reports that he will
play 60 percent of the Cardinals’ snaps. I like Smith but thought 3.06 was a little
early, which left me with Johnson at 3.09.
I am higher on Johnson than most it seems, but I see him as
a runner with feature-back size and good quickness and change-of-direction
ability. Toby Gerhart is a solid back, but Johnson might have the most natural
talent in that backfield. It’s a flier, but one I like my odds on working out
down the line. If it doesn’t, oh well. I’m willing to miss in this area of the
draft to chase upside, and Johnson’s issues with ball security issues are
correctable.
Landry and Richardson look like great value in the late
third, while Sims is an excellent stash pick. Sims is a borderline top-five RB
in this class for me, so waiting a year to watch his talents on display is
worth it at this point in the draft. Since I had addressed most of my major
needs at this point and Landry, Richardson and Sims were gone, I went with
Thomas’ upside at QB.
With only Ryan Fitzpatrick behind Luck on my roster, Thomas
is a guy I’m willing to wait on as a taxi-squad player to see if he can develop
enough to start by his third season and serve as my future backup. It’s a
high-risk, high-reward luxury pick I probably would not have made if I didn’t
already draft five players. If I had needed a potential starter sooner, I may
have looked harder at Zach Mettenberger, a player with similar upside and a
shot to start next season if Jake Locker faceplants and the Titans don’t take a
quarterback early.
4.01
|
49.
|
Mon Aug 18 10:29:20 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.02
|
50.
|
Mon Aug 18 11:15:54 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.03
|
51.
|
Mon Aug 18 12:17:27 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.04
|
52.
|
Mon Aug 18 12:23:22 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.05
|
53.
|
Mon Aug 18 1:04:36 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.06
|
54.
|
Mon Aug 18 1:58:49 p.m. ET 2014
|
Should be a nice DE1/DE2, just fell in the draft because
of injury (Comments Added Mon Aug 18 3:24:42 p.m. CT 2014)
|
||
4.07
|
55.
|
Mon Aug 18 2:16:15 p.m. ET 2014
|
The next Gronk...at least I think more likely than C.J.
More likely the next Martellus Bennett though. (Comments Added Mon Aug 18
2:25:34 p.m. ET 2014)
|
||
4.08
|
56.
|
Mon Aug 18 3:34:04 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.09
|
57.
|
Mon Aug 18 3:47:15 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.10
|
58.
|
Mon Aug 18 4:18:16 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.11
|
59.
|
Mon Aug 18 4:19:28 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.12
|
60.
|
Mon Aug 18 4:28:27 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.13
|
61.
|
Mon Aug 18 5:14:00 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
4.14
|
62.
|
Mon Aug 18 5:40:08 p.m. ET 2014
|
Well, 8 picks in the first 4 rounds later, I'm finally
done. Do work! (Comments Added Mon Aug 18 5:45:49 p.m. ET 2014)
|
||
4.15
|
63.
|
Mon Aug 18 5:40:09 p.m. ET 2014
|
Pick made based on Pre-Draft List Seastrunk got sniped, so
I went LB (Comments Added Tue Aug 19 4:48:45 a.m. ET 2014)
|
||
4.16
|
64.
|
Mon Aug 18 5:44:09 p.m. ET 2014
|
I thought 4.01 was high for Ealy considering the players
available in the rest of the round. Picks 4.03-4.06 are solid as well, and I
saw multiple targets of mine coming off the board. As a result, I decided to
give up 6.12 and my 2015 fourth-round pick for 4.07 and took Niklas.
Another player I plan on waiting on with a taxi squad spot,
Niklas has the blocking skills to endear himself to coach Bruce Arians. If
Larry Fitzgerald does end up leaving the Cardinals, somebody will need to
replace his prowess in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Niklas
may force Arians to use his tight ends more than he likes, and is also a
big-time threat in the red zone. This was definitely a “bet on talent” pick
rather than situation.
Once Janis came off the board at 4.11, I had just one player
remaining in that tier: Seastrunk. Having Alfred Morris on my team isn’t the
best reason to take him, but that combined with Seastrunk’s running talent was
enough for me to trade 5.02 and a sixth next season for the rights to draft
him, ending my draft with eight picks in the first four rounds. Looks like I
moved up just in time as well, based on the comment after the following pick.
With a depressed PPR setup for RB’s, Seastrunk’s deficiencies in the passing game
might not hurt him as much and if something were to happen to Morris, his value
would only rise. How much is the question, but he’s a talented runner and Roy
Helu, the only RB clearly ahead of him on the depth chart besides Morris,
doesn’t exactly have a spotless injury history.
5.01
|
65.
|
Mon Aug 18 5:44:10 p.m. ET 2014
|
Pick made based on Pre-Draft List muddle huddle (Comments
Added Tue Aug 19 4:49:03 a.m. ET 2014)
|
||
5.02
|
66.
|
Mon Aug 18 5:44:40 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.03
|
67.
|
Mon Aug 18 7:32:07 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.04
|
68.
|
Mon Aug 18 7:32:08 p.m. ET 2014
|
Pick made based on Pre-Draft List Nice slot guy. Hope
they´ll give him a shot. (Comments Added Tue Aug 19 4:49:24 a.m. ET 2014)
|
||
5.05
|
69.
|
Mon Aug 18 8:16:06 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.06
|
70.
|
Mon Aug 18 8:23:15 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.07
|
71.
|
Mon Aug 18 9:12:02 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.08
|
72.
|
Tue Aug 19 7:42:02 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.09
|
73.
|
Tue Aug 19 7:46:23 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.10
|
74.
|
Tue Aug 19 9:10:25 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.11
|
75.
|
Tue Aug 19 5:15:52 p.m. ET 2014
|
Pick made by ADP Rank
|
||
5.12
|
76.
|
Tue Aug 19 9:27:46 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.13
|
77.
|
Tue Aug 19 9:53:47 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.14
|
78.
|
Tue Aug 19 10:41:31 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.15
|
79.
|
Tue Aug 19 11:06:14 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
5.16
|
80.
|
Tue Aug 19 11:06:39 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.01
|
81.
|
Wed Aug 20 1:04:04 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.02
|
82.
|
Wed Aug 20 6:24:52 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.03
|
83.
|
Wed Aug 20 9:13:21 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.04
|
84.
|
Wed Aug 20 9:15:30 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.05
|
85.
|
Wed Aug 20 10:45:59 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.06
|
86.
|
Wed Aug 20 10:57:17 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.07
|
87.
|
Wed Aug 20 10:57:18 a.m. ET 2014
|
Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
|
||
6.08
|
88.
|
Wed Aug 20 11:27:33 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.09
|
89.
|
Wed Aug 20 11:57:17 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.10
|
90.
|
Wed Aug 20 11:58:07 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.11
|
91.
|
Wed Aug 20 11:58:57 a.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.12
|
92.
|
Wed Aug 20 12:18:10 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.13
|
93.
|
Wed Aug 20 12:38:56 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.14
|
94.
|
Wed Aug 20 2:44:15 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.15
|
95.
|
Wed Aug 20 2:49:17 p.m. ET 2014
|
|||
6.16
|
96.
|
Wed Aug 20 4:30:27 p.m. ET 2014
|
Williams and Wilson were nice fliers for Wuppertal Tuffis at
the start of the round, as was Garoppolo for Chalk Dust Torture a few picks
later. The fifth round’s best pick could turn out to be Anthony Hitchens, who
has a chance to make starts for the Cowboys this season.
The sixth round actually had more fireworks, as Oliver went
three picks after Grice despite being ahead of him in the race for a roster
spot in San Diego. Fortt, Williamson and Kennard are good taxi squad stashes at
LB who will be nice long-term values at this stage if they get starting jobs
down the line. If Easley is healthy at any point this season, he could prove to
be a great pick as could Josey, who the Eagles like. Philadelphia’s depth chart
is also in flux behind LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles, and a Sproles injury especially
could give Josey an opportunity as a scat back.
My favorite pick of the round, though, has to be Washington.
I had been trying to trade a future pick to get back into the sixth round for
him, but nobody would bite. His preseason performance certainly makes him worth
a taxi squad stash, and if he was signed as an undrafted player in this league,
he wouldn’t been eligible for the taxi squad. The obvious comparison people are
making is Victor Cruz, but Washington is probably more similar to Rueben Randle
among Giants receivers. If Beckham can’t get on the field for the first few
weeks, Washington may have a chance to produce with Jerrel Jernigan struggling
through training camp.
No comments:
Post a Comment